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000
FXUS64 KLCH 151427
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
927 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET THIS MORNING AND
NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION IS
DISSIPATING WHILE SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
WILL MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE SRN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. A NW TO
SE ORIENTED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FM NEAR JASPER TO LOWER
PORTIONS OF ACADIANA. LT VRBL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY BECOMING S-SW 5-10 KT AT SRN SITES THIS
AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN...THEN
DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ROUGHLY THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TO NEAR LAKE CHARLES...THEN
SNAKING UP AND BISECTING SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH AROUND JASPER.
EARLIER CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST.

THIS WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY BACK
TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY. AGAIN...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE
HANGING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
CONVERGENCE FROM BOUNDARY...EXPECTED A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. AGAIN THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE...WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
THE MAIN CONCERNS.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STAYS SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
SUFFICE FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LESS CONVECTION IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AS RIDGING WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER TO HELP SUPPRESS MOST ACTIVITY.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE MID WEEK. THIS WILL AGAIN
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PUSH IT TO THE SOUTH...WITH A GENERAL TROF
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND GULF SOUTH. THEREFORE...A DAILY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST...DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE COAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT FOR THE COASTAL
LAKES AND BAYS.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AS
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WHICH WILL MEAN MAINLY
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  76  93  75  92 /  20  10  20  10  10
KBPT  93  75  94  75  92 /  20  10  20  10  10
KAEX  95  73  94  72  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
KLFT  94  76  94  74  92 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$