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000
FXUS64 KLCH 181717
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.AVIATION...
UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT CLOUDS HAVE BROKE ACRS THE REGION WITH
ALL SITES VFR. THIS WILL HOLD INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS BUT CLOUDS
WILL SPILL BACK IN TWRDS MIDNIGHT AND CONT THRU SR. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

UPDATE...
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY SKY...WIND...TEMP AND
DEWPOINT GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT OBS TRENDS. LATEST OBS AND
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LOW CLOUDS LIFTING WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ALREADY NR 80 DEGREES AS OF 15Z...AND
THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WITH
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE REGION...EXPECT ABV NORMAL MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTN WITH SUBSIDENCE LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN SLY WINDS AND ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST GULF
AIR WILL MAINTAIN MUGGY CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS THIN AND LIFT, HOWEVER LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

AT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH NORTH
FLORIDA TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FURTHER WEST...A STATIONARY FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDS MERIDIONALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

FURTHER-UP...A TROUGH IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN.

DISCUSSION...
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STEER CARIBBEAN AIR INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.

THE MORNING MARINE STRATUS WILL FRAGMENT INTO FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
BY MIDMORNING. THE PREVIOUS VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALED A POSSIBLE
SEA BREEZE (OR MARINE PUSH) STARTING IN THE MID AFTERNOON. SKIES
RAPIDLY CLEARED GULFWARD OF THE ONSHORING SEA BREEZE FRONT.

OTHERWISE...THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PINEY
HILLS AND LAKES REGIONS. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.

MARINE...
THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES. WIND WAVES WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 5 SECONDS.

OUTLOOK...
THE SOUTHERLY SEGMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST...ENTERING SOUTHEAST TEXAS/WESTERN
LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY.
THE TRAVELING TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT WILL COME TO A HALT ACROSS
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  83  72  83  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  71  81  73  82  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  68  88  71  89  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  71  84  72  85  72 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$