Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 140006
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
706 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Ridging extends from the east coast across central Texas. This
high pressure is the cause of the calm conditions and light
winds. The location of the high pressure in the Atlantic is
creating southerly flow and moisture return into the Gulf coast
and farther north. 500 mb analysis shows zonal flow across much
of CONUS. This pattern will lead to overcast skies but little
precipitation for the next days, with PoPs around 20% today and
tomorrow.

On Thursday, the pattern will begin to change as a strong upper-
level low digs into the southern Rockies. This is expected to
become a cutoff low, with its associated cold front draping across
much of the US. At the same time, high pressure off the coast of
Florida will continue to pump warm, moist air north. This clashing
of air masses will create a severe weather threat, mostly north
of our area, with the SPC placing an Enhanced Risk (3/5) in
Arkansas. For our region, a general unstable pattern will emerge
with widespread rain and a few thunderstorms. However, a lack of
forcing or upper air support will limit the strength of the storms
that do form. 

By Friday, the front will have moved farther south, leading to
better dynamics across central Louisiana and southeast Texas. With
the SPC placing us under marginal risk (1/5), the main concern
will be the flash flood risk with a training rain setup. The WPC
has placed a swath of central Louisiana under a Slight Risk (2/4).
PWAT values will be in the 90th percentile as the conveyor belt
of moisture will continue through the weekend. Once again, the
main area of concern will be central Louisiana, including Fort
Johnson and Alexandria. The biggest question for Friday will be
where the front settles, as that will be the main axis of
convergence. 

Temperatures will be warm and muggy, with highs in the 80s and
lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

As the period begins, a cold front will have become quasi-stationary
along the I-10 corridor and this frontal system will remain near the
coast through Sunday. A very moist air mass will be in place with
PWAT values at or above 1.50 inches with mean layer relative
humidity values over 75 percent.

An upper low will remain cut off over the southwest U.S. and
disturbances will occasionally eject out from this system and move
overhead in the southwest flow aloft. These disturbances will
interact with the moist air mass in place and the frontal system to
produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. With the
high moisture content, some locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Although high pops during the weekend, there is low confidence in
the actual timing of each disturbance, so there will be some dry
periods to go along with the widespread activity.

A dip in the northern stream will help push a secondary cold front
through the area later on Sunday that will push the deep moisture
away and help end shower activity.

Cooler and drier conditions will then occur during the first part of
next week as a high pressure system with modified Canadian air
settles over the forecast area. Temperatures will be quite chilly,
especially on Monday night into Tuesday morning when the entire
forecast area will see lows in the 40s.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Current MVFR CIGs to lower to IFR over the course of the TAF
cycle along with winds becoming stronger out of the south and
southeast. Sea fog formation overnight could potentially cause
reduced visibilities for the coastal terminals as elevated
southerly flow advects it in. Confidence in VIS reduction below
IFR is low.
Stigger/87

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Winds will remain onshore for the next three days with wind speeds
increasing at the same time. Wind speeds and gusts will build
reaching around 20 knots Thursday evening or Thursday night.
Waves will be between 4 and 6 feet. A caution statement for small
craft may needed stating tomorrow evening. There is a small
chance for sea fog tonight but visibility`s are not expected to
drop below 1 mile.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  85  66  78 /   0  20  40  90
LCH  68  81  68  80 /   0  10  20  60
LFT  68  83  71  83 /   0  30  10  70
BPT  68  81  68  81 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...87


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