National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KLCH 201928
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
228 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS CONTINUES TO DRAG IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS FROM
THE GULF AND CARIBBEAN AND WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT
BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS, WINDS REMAIN BREEZY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL... MOST NOTABLY ON THE LOWS.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS GRADUALLY ERODING THE
LOW TO MID LVL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
IN TURN ALLOW POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY/TUE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME DIVERGENT LATER TUE AND WED AND WITH AN ERODED
CAP, POTENTIAL FOCUS FROM A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATER TUE INTO WED. THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN FROM THE EAST TX LAKES THROUGH CENLA. ALSO DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY
MAY HAVE A SHOT OF DRIFTING TO NEAR THE COAST, PER THE 12Z GFS,
WHICH WOULD ALLOW A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TO MIX IN BEFORE THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DELAYS THE "DRIER" AIRMASS UNTIL THE WEEKEND AS
A RIDGE WORKS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION THE AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR WOULD BE FAIRLY LOW, HOWEVER THIS
MAY ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO WHILE HIGHS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND COOLED LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH WINDS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
15 KTS. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS BY MID
WEEK WEAKENING THE GRADIENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  86  75  86  71 /  10  10  20  50  20
KBPT  75  86  75  86  71 /  10  10  20  30  20
KAEX  73  90  71  87  68 /  10  20  40  50  20
KLFT  74  88  74  87  71 /  10  10  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$