Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 130921
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
421 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Surface high pressure has now merged into the western Atlantic with
broad ridging extending westward across the central Gulf Coast. This
ridging will play a key role in the weather over the next several
days through the weekend. For the short term, southerly flow and
moisture advection continues to bring in higher dewpoints over the
central Louisiana and to a slightly lessor extent over eastern Tx.
Combined with a minor low level disturbance passing through the area
this evening, a few shower / storms are possible, particularly along
the Atchafalaya basin into the Mississippi Delta.  Meanwhile a well
pronounced upper level shortwave wave is digging south into the
western Rockies and further to the Four Corners region with slight
positive tilt in response to the upstream ridging extending over the
Florida / Gulf of Mexico. Persistent ridging in Gulf along with
acceleration of the northern stream over Canada leads to an upper
level cutoff circulation over the SW CONUS. At the surface, this
pattern translates to building high pressure over the upper Midwest
with broad troughing that gradually organizes and deepens into a
large surface low in the western Plains by the early morning hours
of Thursday. The local effect on temperatures will continue to
remain fairly warm, trending toward the lower 80’s for diurnal
highs. With that said, do expect cloud cover to be quite extensive
and prevalent during the next 72 hours which may temper those high
in a few locations- particularly where more precipitation occurs.


Diving deeper into the precipitation impact late Thursday, isolated
to scattered shower/storms will develop and spread NE into the Ohio
Valley, becoming more clustered / widespread north of Acadiana
region into S’rn Arkansas. Meanwhile the aforementioned deepening
surface low broadens below the Great Lakes region with troughing
attempting to wrap around the western Atlantic high pressure ridge.
By Friday morning that trough begins to consolidate across the
eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS as the Midwest high pressure exerts a
stronger gradient across the central plains. This pattern will allow
the cold front to shift over northern Louisiana / Eastern Texas
toward the Gulf Coast before stalling. The above mentioned pattern
will facilitate multiple rounds of precipitation. Worth noting,
there is no strong signal for major severe outbreak, however, some
storms may be stronger, particularly on Friday where SPC has an
outline of a marginal risk for severe weather north of I-10. As far
as precipitation intensity and amounts through Friday night, do
expect POPs become more favorable areawide late Thursday through
Friday evening. Here portions of SETX / SWLA are under a slight risk
for excessive rain Friday into Saturday as the front continues to
stall near the TX/LA Gulf Coast.

Kowalski/30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A stationary front will be in the area at the start of the period
and remain through at least Sunday, bringing periods of showers and
thunderstorms as disturbances move across the region. Timing of each
individual wave is still uncertain, but at this time Saturday night
into Sunday looks like the main event during the period. At this
time there is a slight risk (2/4) for excessive rainfall Saturday
into Sunday.

A cold front is expected to move through Sunday night bring in
cooler and drier air through the remainder of the period.

27

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Conditions remain VFR late this evening, as BKN cirrus streams
over the region. GOES Nighttime microphysics imagery shows some
patchy low clouds beginning to form, and expect they will
continue to expand in coverage overnight with IFR cigs at
BPT/LCH, low MVFR/tempo IFR at AEX and MVFR at LFT/ARA. Patchy fog
will also be possible, with the best potential at the BPT/LCH
terminals where HREF guidance suggests a 20% probability of vis
less than one mile. Conditions should improve after 14-15Z with a
brief period of VFR conditions possible in the afternoon before
lowering again by 00Z. Winds will be southerly through the period,
strengthening to 8-12 KT Wednesday morning.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore winds will continue through Saturday. No significant
precipitation is expected through Thursday morning. By Thursday
afternoon, a stronger upper level trough and cut off low over the
Southwest U.S. expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. A cold front will move across
the coastal waters Sunday, bringing offshore flow.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  65  85  66 /  20  10  40  50
LCH  80  68  81  68 /  20  10  10  20
LFT  80  68  84  71 /  20  10  30  20
BPT  82  68  82  68 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...30


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