Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 130450
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1150 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)

Wx map shows surface high pressure over the Southeast U.S. which is
giving east to southeast winds around 5-10 mph across the area.
No rain detected by area radars, and none expected today. Visible
satellite imagery showing scattered stratocumulus and thin cirrus
across the area. Temperatures this afternoon in the mid to upper 70s
across the region.

Tonight, surface high pressure expected to move further east,
with low pressure deepening across the TX/OK Panhandles. This will
tighten the pressure gradient across our region, keeping southeast
winds elevated. Overnight temperatures respond accordingly only
reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s, with mid 60s over Southeast
Texas.

For Wednesday, the next weak perturbation within the west southwest
flow aloft expected to give low end chances of showers, mainly
20% or less, by the afternoon hours. Warmer temperatures can be
expected with highs in upper 70s to lower 80s. Elevated southeast
winds and cloud cover will keep Wednesday night lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

By Thursday, a stronger upper level trough and cut off low over the
Southwest U.S. expected to eject a stronger upper level disturbance
across Texas and the ArkLaTex. With the main focus a little
further north per latest blend of models, the greatest chances of
showers and thunderstorms expected to remain across Central and
Northern Louisiana late Thursday afternoon through the overnight
hours. Thus, the marginal risk of excessive rainfall was shifted
further north, mainly north of a line from LFK/POE/AEX, and this
will be for the early Friday morning timeframe. SPC has the area
just north of U.S. 190 outlined in a Marginal Risk of severe in
the Day 3 outlook, mainly late in the period.

As stated earlier this week, these type of systems always pose
less than normal confidence. Thus, exact specifics in regards to
amounts of rainfall and potential for severe weather & possible
heavy rainfall potential will likely change some before the onset
of rainfall.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday)

As we move into the long-term forecast, we will see our pattern
change, with clear skies becoming cloudy. A stationary front will
stall across the region from Friday through Sunday, bringing
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. This
stalled front will bring with it a chance for flash flooding Friday,
Saturday, and Sunday with a Slight Risk (2/4) in the northern parts
of the forecast area. We also can`t rule out the possibility of
severe weather this weekend, but the chances look to be on the lower
end. Total rainfall amounts look to be around 4 to 6 inches.
forecast soundings show PWATs in the 90th percentile this weekend,
further high lightning the rain threat. However, these far-out
specific numbers and locations of the heaviest rainfall are suspect
at best. 

The rain will end when a strong cold front pushes through, around
Sunday night. This will give us another shot of cold air with
temperatures around 10 degrees below normal.

14/Slaughter

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Conditions remain VFR late this evening, as BKN cirrus streams
over the region. GOES Nighttime microphysics imagery shows some
patchy low clouds beginning to form, and expect they will
continue to expand in coverage overnight with IFR cigs at
BPT/LCH, low MVFR/tempo IFR at AEX and MVFR at LFT/ARA. Patchy fog
will also be possible, with the best potential at the BPT/LCH
terminals where HREF guidance suggests a 20% probability of vis
less than one mile. Conditions should improve after 14-15Z with a
brief period of VFR conditions possible in the afternoon before
lowering again by 00Z. Winds will be southerly through the period,
strengthening to 8-12 KT Wednesday morning.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore winds will continue through Saturday. No significant
precipitation is expected through Thursday morning. By Thursday
afternoon, a stronger upper level trough and cut off low over the
Southwest U.S. expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. A cold front will move across
the coastal waters Sunday, bringing offshore flow.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  57  80  65  85 /   0  20  10  40
LCH  62  79  67  82 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  61  78  68  84 /  10  20  10  30
BPT  65  81  68  82 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24


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