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000
FXUS64 KLCH 251743
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1243 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR AEX/LFT/ARA...WITH
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS FOR BPT/LCH THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
20Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BEGIN FIRING UP ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS INLAND SE TX SE THRU S LA. THUS...PLACED VCTS AND
TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA THRU 00Z. DELAYED THIS A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
AEX...AS THE AREA OF MOISTURE/LIFT MOVES N WITH THE RETREATING
FRONT. AFTER 02Z...VFR EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
ALL SITES GENERALLY VFR THIS MORNING...THOUGH PERIODIC MVFR CIGS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT KLFT AND KARA. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
UNDERWAY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THESE TERMINALS...BUT THE RADAR
IS OTHERWISE QUIET. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING A FAIR AMOUNT
OF HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH SCT-BKN
LOW CLOUDS AT VARYING LEVELS. UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS OUT TO THE E/NE TODAY. ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT IT
APPEARS THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK WILL LIE WITHIN AN AREA ROUGHLY
ALONG A TOLEDO BEND TO CROWLEY LINE...NEAR A RESIDUAL BUT DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION
OF SHRA OR TSRA AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING TX UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTL/SRN PLAINS.
THIS DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS
CNTL/SRN TX WITH ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST INTO
LA. MEANWHILE...KLCH RADAR IS ALSO DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE S CNTL LA COAST AND COASTAL WATERS JUST SOUTH
OF VERMILION BAY. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING NR THE SRN END OF A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NW INTO E TX. THIS BOUNDARY WAS
SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACRS CNTL LA FROM LOW 70S
DEWPOINTS ACRS SE TX.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWV OVER TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A SLT CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LOW END CHC POPS MAINLY FM S CNTL LA
INTO SE TX AS THE WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMAL ACRS SE TX TODAY...WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS ACRS THE ERN ZONES WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

FOR MEMORIAL DAY...MID AND UPPER LVL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WEST ACRS THE GULF WILL
PROVIDE FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
EXPECTED. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AN AN UPPER TROF ENTERS THE SRN
PLAINS. A SLT CHC FOR DAILY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF TRAVEL OVER THE REGION. NEAR TO ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  87  68  86  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  70  87  68  86  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  67  87  66  86  66 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  67  88  67  87  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$