000
FXUS64 KLCH 192355
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
655 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.AVIATION...A PESKY MID LEVEL TROF HAS HELPED INITIATE SOME LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOVEMENT IS SLOW
HOWEVER AND INDICATIONS ARE THESE CELLS WON`T SURVIVE CROSSING
I-10 MUCH LESS REACHING BPT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
INCLUDED TEMPO IFR VIS IN SHALLOW FOG AT AEX WHERE THERE IS A FOG
SIGNAL AND NVA INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VCSH STILL LOOKING
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FOR THE LOUISIANA TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR CU CIGS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS NE TX THRU N LA. A SIGNIFICANT
PERTURBATION WITHIN THE TROF CONTINUES TO ENHANCE LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...KEPT HEALTHY 50% THRU 00Z...WITH 30% FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

FOR THU...MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE/LIFT.
THE GFS ADVECTS MUCH DRIER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF BASICALLY LEAVE
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE...GIVING A SIMILAR COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKE WE HAD TODAY. THE NAM YIELDS A MORE REALISTIC
SOLN...WITH ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...WITH A
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE OVER C AND SC LA...GOING 30-40% FOR THESE
AREAS. BY FRI (FIRST DAY OF SUMMER ON THE CALENDAR) WILL LIKELY
SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST...BUT CAN RULE
OUT ISO SHRA/TSRA DURING THE MAX DAYTIME HEATING.

NOT MUCH CHANGES MADE TO REMAINDER OF FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECTING ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA BY AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
BY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED.

DML

MARINE...
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...S TO SE WINDS 5-10 KTS & SEAS 1-2 FT DURING
THE DAY...INCREASING 10-15 KTS & SEAS 2-3 FT DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS CAN BE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SE
FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  90  75  91  76 /  30  30  20  30  10
KBPT  76  90  76  91  75 /  30  30  20  20  10
KAEX  71  91  72  92  72 /  30  40  20  30  10
KLFT  74  90  74  91  74 /  30  40  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$