000
FXUS64 KLCH 212056
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
356 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH TX AND OK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WEAK RIDGING IS
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE MID TO LOW LVLS. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EAST OK AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DFW METRO WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AREA AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF
THE CWA OR RIGHT ALONG THE NORTH EDGE, HOWEVER THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S AND EAST ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
TONIGHT INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST, BUT THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL GIVE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM INTO WED MORNING. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH WED WHILE THE BEST DIVERGENCE
PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGING WILL AGAIN OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, HOWEVER A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE IN FRI
OR EARLY SAT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EAST HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH, HOWEVER A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS MAY FILTER IN ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT DURING SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.


&&

.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS RUNNING AROUND 15 KTS TO NEAR 20 KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE DURING WED MORNING AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES, BUT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND AN ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  86  71  88  71 /  40  50  10  20  10
KBPT  73  87  72  88  71 /  40  50  10  20  10
KAEX  71  87  68  90  70 /  60  60  20  20  10
KLFT  74  87  71  89  71 /  30  60  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$