000
FXUS64 KLCH 170449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD AVIATION-WISE WITH PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. INITIAL POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT APPEARS TO BE SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY
TOWARD SUNRISE...PRIMARILY AT KAEX/KARA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE LOOKS BEST PER TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS. THEREAFTER PRIMARY
CONCERN SHOULD BE WINDS INCREASING TO 10+ KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
THANKS TO A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
ALOFT MIXING DOWN. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW WOULD BE THE ERN SITES WHERE AGAIN MOISTURE LOOKS
BETTER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE CONVECTIVE MENTION ATTM. ALSO WATCHING A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX APPROACHING NRN LA RIGHT NOW...APPARENT WEAKENING TREND
SPELLS GOOD NEWS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH ANY POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW SINKING SWD COULD HELP WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

UPDATE...LOCAL RADAR ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
REGIONAL MOSAIC SHOWING THE NEAREST ACTIVITY OVER SW ARKANSAS...SE
OKLAHOMA...AND EDGING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. SOUTHEAST ADVANCING
CONVECTION SHOWING A WEAKENING AT THIS TIME WITH WARMING CLOUD
TOPS AND DIMINISHED LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF LESS
INSTABILITY AND DECREASED SHEAR. DO NOT SEE ANY OVERNIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR THIS COMPLEX TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO

FURTHER UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS DESERT OLD
MEXICO. A WEAK TROUGH MARKS THE OUTER EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DOME
.EXTENDING THROUGH THE COASTAL TEXAS PLAINS TO SHREVEPORT.

DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INTRUDE THE MIDTROPOSPHERE...
EXTINGUISHING THE BULK OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE PLUMES LOFTING OFF
THE HEATED GROUND.

THE SLIGHTLY-ABOVE-NORMAL TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. THE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

OUTLOOK...
THE MEXICAN DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS...SETTING UP AN OKLAHOMA TO LOUISIANA WAVEGUIDE ON TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVES WILL FORM OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BEFORE TRAVELING
THROUGH THE WAVEGUIDE.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  90  76  90  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
KBPT  75  90  76  91  75 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  73  91  73  90  72 /  10  10  10  30  20
KLFT  75  91  75  91  75 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$