000
FXUS64 KLCH 161146
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
646 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER TEXAS MCS
NOW ADVANCING INTO OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. HAVE
BUMPED UP EARLY MORNING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT 35 MPH.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LOW NOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ENTERING THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE. FEATURE SPAWNED A QLCS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTH TEXAS...WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE QLCS
APPROACHING OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. DECAY OF SYSTEM
HAS BEEN RAPID OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO
AREA OF MORE STABILITY. EXPECTING LITTLE ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
OUR CWA. OTHERWISE...

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS AREA-WIDE AS
SOUTHWARD TROFFING/WEAKNESS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...IN COMBINATION
WITH ANY PVA CARRIED WITHIN TROF.

LOW WILL OPEN AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH
AMPLIFYING RIDGING MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ENSUING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK...WHILE ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN ONLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THAT IN MIND...WARM AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...WHILE NIGHTS WILL BE MILD. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL.

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE NORTHWEST GULF PRIMARILY WITHIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  70  83  71  84 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  70  83  71  84 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  84  68  87  69  88 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  82  70  84  70  86 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$