000
FXUS64 KLCH 151816
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
116 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
15/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO APPROACH WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING...ESPECIALLY AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS AT KBPT AND KLCH FOR THIS AFTN AS RADAR/OBS SHOW
ACTIVITY OCCURRING OR NR THESE SITES. HOWEVER ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KLFT AND KARA. ALSO INCLUDED VCTS AT
KAEX AFTER 21Z AS CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH LOOKS TO HOLD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY BKN TO OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURS MORNING
WITH LT-MODERATE SLY WINDS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...
JUST UPDATED THE ZONES TO RAISE POPS FOR TODAY. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A NEWD-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SERN TX
ZONES. FORWARD MARCH OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN SLOWED A BIT DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA PER 12Z KLCH SOUNDING
BUT UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AND EXPECT THIS MOISTURE
TO GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH ALL POPS
WERE RAISED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AFTERNOON POPS ARE LOWER
THAN MORNING MORNING DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER CNTL LA...
PLUS IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE EMBEDDED
CONVECTION OVER SERN TX.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LOW NOW OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY. FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED SOUTHWARD EXTENDING TROF WILL BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND WEAKENING OF ONGOING RIDGING TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS MORE SO OVER THE WEST TO NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AREA-
WIDE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL THEN ADVANCE INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW...WITH A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN RETURNING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO DRY
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE AND DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY ON THE
MODERATE SIDE.

MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLIES WILL BE MAINTAINED AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  64  81  69 /  50  20  20  10
KBPT  81  67  80  70 /  80  20  20  10
KAEX  82  62  82  68 /  60  20  20  10
KLFT  83  64  81  69 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$