000
FXUS64 KLCH 181943
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
243 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH GREENWOOD MS THROUGH TYLER THIS
EVENING...WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FURTHER UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SEMI-PERMANENT ANTICYCLONE
WILL TAKE ON A POSITIVE TILT ON SATURDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH WEST TEXAS TO ILLINOIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LIFTING MECHANISM IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF
COAST STATES. THE OUTER WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STEERING CARIBBEAN AIR THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. THE TRAVELING CARIBBEAN AIR ASCENDS UPON APPROACHING THE
STATIONARY FRONT (TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE).

FURTHER UP...THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS A VIGOROUS WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
TRAVELING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING...BEFORE EXITING INTO
MISSISSIPPI BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IS IN PLACE TONIGHT.

THE COMBINED LIFT WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE LIFT ATTENDING THE UPSLIDING
CARIBBEAN AIR WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST FROM THE TRAVELING
WESTERLY SHORTWAVE.

MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES (ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MID-JUNE BENCHMARK NORMALS).

INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE K-INDEX WILL BE RUNNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30`S (CELSIUS DEGREES). THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
BE RUNNING AROUND 3000 J PER KG THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE (MICROBURSTS). HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  89  75  91  75 /  60  50  10  30  10
KBPT  73  90  75  91  75 /  60  50  10  20  10
KAEX  71  88  71  91  72 /  60  50  10  30  10
KLFT  75  89  75  91  75 /  60  50  30  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
21

$$