000
FXUS64 KLCH 180225
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
925 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
ONLY MADE A MINOR CHANGE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER IN THE CLOUD GRID
UP BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UNDER THE CAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

RUA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT CEILINGS ~2500-3500FT...WITH S WINDS 8-12 KTS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS ~2000-2500FT EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME PREDOMINATE BY MID/LATE EVENING...INTERMITTENT
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...S WINDS OF 12-15
KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z SAT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AFTN UNDERWAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACRS THE
AREA. SLY WINDS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING
OVER THE GULF COAST CONTINUE TO USHER WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN RANGED FM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S
SOUTH TO UPPER 80S NORTH. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER
AIR ALOFT...WHILE ANALYSIS OF UPPER FEATURES SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF RIDGING DEVELOPING
ACRS TX.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTN WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED WITH
UPPER LVL RIDGING OVER TX TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN
TODAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT THEN MORE SCT
DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER 70S OR
POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 60S. EXPECT A WARM AFTN SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO
NR 90 DEGREES. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SWLY ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS.

HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE AREA...KEEPING A SLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT TRAVEL OVER THE AREA. A DAILY SLIGHT OR
LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S
AND AFTN HIGHS IN THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS AT A FEW SITES ACRS CNTL LA INTO THE LAKES
AREA OF TX NR 90.

MARINE...
A GENERALLY MODERATE SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  86  72  86  73 /  10  10  10  10   0
KBPT  71  86  72  84  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  69  90  70  89  71 /  10  10  10  10   0
KLFT  71  87  72  87  72 /  10   0  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$