000
FXUS64 KLCH 171515
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1015 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRES RIDGING WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR OVER THE AREA.
ABUNDANT STRATUS ACRS THE FCST AREA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME SCT BY THIS AFTN. BEEN WATCHING AN ISOLATED
STORM MOVING SE OUT OF N CNTL TX EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LAST FEW
RADAR SCANS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY TO LOWER
TEENS FOR SE TX...BUT EXPECT THIS STORM WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY SKY...WIND...AND TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS WHICH RESULTED IN
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING IN ZONES...BUT FCST IS GENERALLY ON
TRACK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...LOCATED OFFSHORE JACKSONVILLE...RIDGES
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION (ON THE
WARM SIDE OF DOME) IS TRANSPORTING CARIBBEAN AIR INTO THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES.

THE CONSEQUENT MORNING MARINE STRATUS WILL BREAK UP BY MID MORNING.

21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCU ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS RESULTING FROM A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLIES
INCOMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AFOREMENTIONED ALSO MAINTAINING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO
LOW 70S SOUTH...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS/NORTHERN GULF TO LOW PRESSURE OVER MID-TEXAS.
ALOFT...OPENING LOW NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FOLLOWED BY AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS.
NEXT TROF AND POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER FOR US NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS.

ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAINED CONFINED TO ONLY THE LOWER
LEVELS AS A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED ALOFT. WITH
ATMOSPHERE ESSENTIALLY CAPPED...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL
WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARD THE NORM AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW END
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIME-FRAME AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEST COAST TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY INTO AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MARINE...STRONG FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  84  70  86  70 /  10   0   0  10
KBPT  83  71  84  71 /  10   0   0  10
KAEX  87  70  89  69 /  10   0   0  10
KLFT  84  71  85  71 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$