000
FXUS64 KLCH 201122
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
622 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 20/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL HELP PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS BELOW THE CAP. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH LATE MORNING...WITH CEILING LIFTING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONCE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

SYNOPSIS...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTER OF
THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE COMBINING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
TO PROVIDE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS TROF MOVES SLOWLY
EAST, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING AROUND THE OZARKS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES OR FROM
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THIS BOUNDARY.

SHORT TERM...WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PERIST THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO PRODUCE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS WHICH SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WENT HIGHER ON THE POPS USING THE EURO SOLUTION AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DECENT COLD AIR CONVERGING WITH MOIST TROPICAL
IN THE ZONE JUST TO THE NORTH OR OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS THE
AREA ADJACENT TO THE NORTH IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS.
THERE LOOKS TO BE VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THIS AREA
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TSTM WINDS. SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH NOT TO MENTION IN THE ZONES AT THIS TIME.
RIDGING FROM THE WEST SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A DRY AND RATHER WARM WEEKEND.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  73  86  73  86 /  10  10  10  30  40
KBPT  85  73  86  73  87 /  10  10  10  30  30
KAEX  92  73  90  72  89 /  10  10  10  40  50
KLFT  87  72  88  72  89 /  10  10  10  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$