000
FXUS64 KLIX 130830
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA ACROSS LOUISIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST
INTO OKLAHOMA. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AT 3 AM WITH DEW
POINTS BETWEEN 70 AND 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NOT WORTHY OF MUCH MORE
THAN 20 PERCENT AREAL COVERAGE. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE OVER
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD
PACK A BIT OF A PUNCH WITH GUSTY WINDS. RIDGE THEN REBUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH A BIT OF COOLING ON OVERNIGHT
LOWS IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
APPROACH 105 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS FRIDAY TO THE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE MET. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ASSIST A FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT APPEARS AS IF IT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA BEFORE WASHING OUT. WITH UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGES
OVER THE GULF...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...AND ANY CONVECTION THAT BREAKS OUT DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 20-30
PERCENT AREAL COVERAGE. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT FOG WILL IMPACT KHUM AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY A COUPLE OTHER
TERMINALS WITH MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW AIRPORTS MAY AGAIN SEE A
REPEAT OF PATCHY LIGHT FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
VICINITY OF SOME OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME SINCE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TD

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION TODAY. THIS RIDGE WILL GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH
INTO THE MARINE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WILL SUPPORT WESTERLY WINDS RISING TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF SOUTHWEST PASS TONIGHT. LIGHTER AND VARIABLE DIRECTION WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AS THE FRONT LINGERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THEN A SOUTHERLY WIND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL RISE
TO 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LONGER FETCH AREAS THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FAIRLY FLAT SEAS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  73  94  68 /  10  20  10  10
BTR  94  75  96  75 /  10  20  20  10
ASD  92  75  94  73 /  10  20  20  10
MSY  92  77  94  78 /  10  20  20  10
GPT  92  76  94  74 /  10  30  20  10
PQL  93  73  93  72 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$