-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
678
FXUS65 KLKN 031014
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
314 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Quiet weather with high temperatures in the 60s with
light winds and mostly sunny skies is expected today under an
upper-level ridge. Big changes coming into the region for Saturday
as a strong Pacific low pressure system makes progress into the
Great Basin. Strong, with some damaging wind gusts, are expected
across much of central Nevada Saturday where high wind warnings
are now in place. A cold front and associated rain and snow will
move in late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread rain,
falling snow levels by Sunday morning with some snow in valley
areas expected. Showers will linger across northern Nevada into
next week with only a slow day-to-day warming expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
Today through Saturday night

Today will be the calm before the storm. Light winds, mild
temperatures mostly in the 60s and mostly sunny skies under a high
pressure ridge are expected across the area today. Lows tonight
will be considerably warmer across western Nevada, only dropping
into the lower 40s, as increasing cloud cover ahead of the next
low pressure system begins to move into the state.

A very dynamic low pressure system will bring increasing south
winds to the state Saturday. South winds will accelerate Saturday
morning and remain elevated across portions of central Nevada
through the evening hours or at least until the cold front sweeps
through the area late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Blowing dust and damaging wind gusts around 60 mph are expected
for central Nevada including the US-50 corridor where high wind
warnings are in place. Advisory level sustained winds of around
30 mph are expected across much of southern and eastern Elko
county. Blowing dust is quite likely after a week of dry
conditions on alkali flats. The winds are just the precursor to
expanding rain and snow showers along a strong cold front that
will overspread the area through the day and evening on Saturday.
Impacts from snow will hold off until late Saturday night into
Sunday morning where snow levels drop to valley floors by Sunday
morning. Several inches of mountain snow is expected through
Saturday night with more through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday

Sunday, and upper level low remains over the state, bringing with
it gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and scattered to numerous
snow showers, as well as isolated thunderstorms. Highs will only
reach the mid to upper 40s for many, with colder isolated spots.
Lows Sunday night are forecasted to be in the low 30s across
northern Nevada, and low to mid 20s across central Nevada. Winds
will pick up in the afternoon out of the west becoming northwest,
20-25 mph. with gusts 30-35 mph. Gusts could be stronger across
central Nevada. Blowing dust as well as blowing snow is possible
given the strong winds. As for snow, snow levels are expected to
be at valley floors through the day. Eastern Nevada will see the
more persistent snows, with a general trace to 3 inches expected.
Some locally higher amounts will be possible in the high mountain
summits of White Pine, and areas in the Ruby Mountains, as well
as the Jarbidge Wilderness Area in Elko county. Ensembles are
showing the city of Ely has a 30% chance of meeting or exceeding 2
inches of snowfall. Most of that will fall in the morning hours
Sunday. There will also be an isolated chance of thunderstorms
from Austin to Eureka, extending north to Battle Mountain and
Deeth, and further north to Mountain City, north of Elko.

By Monday the center of the trough will have moved east of the
state, with lingering Showers and breezy conditions. A short wave
quickly moves through the northern part of the state allowing for
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly north of
I-80, with mountain snow showers as well. A skiff to up to half an
inch of snow is possible north of I-80, in Elko County. Highs
rebound a bit in the mid to upper 50s. Lows Monday night remain in
the upper 20s to lower 30s for most of the area.

Tuesday, another shortwave impulse moves across the northern part
of the state, leading to isolated to scattered snow showers across
northern and eastern Elko county, with only a tenth or two of
snowfall expected. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest
20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Highs are expected to be in the
40s to mid 50s across northern Nevada with, warmer 50s to mid 60s
across central Nevada. Lows are forecasted in the upper 20s to low
30s.

Wednesday through Friday a low pressure system looks to retrograde
over the area, or move from the east back to the west, giving us a
period of unsettled weather across northern Nevada. Each day may
see some isolated to scattered rain or snow showers. Nothing
impactful in the way of accumulation is currently expected. Highs
will slowly warm back into the 60s by the end of next week. Winds
look to continue being breezy during the afternoons, with
northerly winds currently forecasted.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the
next 24 hour period, with a ridge of high pressure bringing
mostly sunny skies and relatively light winds to the region.

KWMC is AMD not SKED due to communication issue.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
Elevated flows continue across several streams,
creeks, and rivers throughout northern Nevada due to seasonal
snow melt. A strong low pressure system will bring widespread
rain and higher elevation snow to much of northern and central
Nevada over the weekend. Over half an inch of liquid equivalent
precipitation is expected across north central Nevada in
northwestern Elko county where most of the flood concerns remain.
This will increase flows in several streams and rivers.

The Humboldt River at Comus continues to slowly rise and is now in
minor flood stage and is expected to remain within minor flood
stage.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently hovering near minor
flood stage and is forecast to remain near minor flood stage
through tonight. Expected rainfall over the weekend could bring
levels back above minor flood stage.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City will gradually fall further
through this week, but remain in action stage.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
-- Changed Discussion --
Wind Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday South
Central Elko County...Southeastern Elko County.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday
Northeastern Nye County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt
Range...White Pine County.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday Northwestern
Nye County...Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday Southwest Elko
County.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

93/91/96