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000
FXUS65 KLKN 172134
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
234 PM PDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY, THEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON PRETTY MUCH WHERE MODELS
INDICATED SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER AIRMASS
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHWEST
NV LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE VERY LIMITED BUT
WITH STRONG DYNAMICS FROM SHORT WAVE AND SOME INSTABILITY COULD
BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 CENTRAL NV. BREEZY TO WINDY ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN TUESDAY, GENERALLY 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH, AND MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. TROF WITH
ASSOCIATED 500MB LOW POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL EXTEND OVER
MOST OF THE CWA.  AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE..A MAINLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW
RESIDES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LATEST RUNS INDICATE A
WEAK WAVE MOVE WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2 ROTATES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED SO JUST EXPECT
A FEW BUILDUPS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS AREA WIDE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL
SAT AND SUN IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  OVERALL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY INCREASE MONDAY...SO ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER
TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY AFTERNOON BUILDUPS.  IN ADDITION...INCREASED
WINDS IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR WHATS LEFT OF IT WILL ENTER
HUMBOLDT COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT.  EC AND DGEX ADVERTISE A SLIGHTLY MORE
ROBUST NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATED FRONTAL SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...WHICH
SAGS A WEAKER BOUNDARY INTO THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT.  EITHER
WAY...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. TO EARLY
TO SAY IF THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NV BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS AIRMASS
TOO DRY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAVE
UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR NORTH NEAR THE OREGON/ID BORDER LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NV. MIH RH MAY DIP BELOW 15 PCT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NV BUT NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR 3 HOURS. ACROSS CENTRAL
NV MIN RH WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT WIND GUST WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN UNER 30 MPH. THEREFORE RED FLAG CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL
ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY...WHITE
PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

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