Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 191035
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
635 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2013
Surface frontal boundary continues to push southward through the
forecast area this morning. Shower activity has diminished
considerably in the last hour and expect conditions to remain dry
for the remainder of the morning. IR satellite imagery shows skies
starting to thin out from NW to SE and we expect this trend to
continue over the next several hours. As the skies clear out, the
combination of cooling, a moist low-level profile, and light winds
should result in some patchy fog developing...especially in the
typical fog prone and low-lying areas. Temperatures should continue
to drop off with readings falling into the lower to middle 60s.
For today, surface front will continue to slowly work southward.
Should see a decent Cu field develop this afternoon resulting partly
sunny conditions. A few of the high resolution models show this Cu
field becoming a little more enhanced across southern KY. The
convection allowing models actually suggest some isolated showers
and storms in KY mainly south of the BG/WK parkways...in close
proximity the boundary and nearly coincident with the deeper layer
moisture. Model proximity soundings from southern KY show decent
low-mid level lapse rates...so I really can`t rule out an isolated
storm or two downstate and for that reason, we`ll carry some low end
PoP chances down there. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s
to the lower 80s in the north with lower-middle 80s in the south.
Whatever convection that does develop this afternoon will quickly
fade by early evening/sunset as the boundary layer stabilizes and we
quickly loose the daytime heating. Mostly clear skies are expected
overnight with lows in the 60-65 degree range. Some locations over
the northern Bluegrass may drop into the upper 50s. Dry conditions
look likely for Thursday with a moderation in temperatures. Highs
look to top out in the 83-88 degree range.
.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2013
The long term forecast continues to feature a 500 mb ridge building
across the southeastern United States. At the surface the area will
be sandwiched between high pressure to the east and low pressure to
the west, with south to southwesterly winds dominating through this
The majority of the long term will likely be dry. However, as
moisture builds in and the atmosphere becomes unstable each day
there will be off and on isolated chances for showers and
thunderstorms. In this type of pattern it is generally difficult for
the models to latch on to any one feature that will help to enhance
precipitation chances. Therefore, have kept only limited
precipitation chances on any one day for the long term. Friday the
best chances will be over south central Kentucky. Through the
weekend we look to remain mainly dry, except perhaps over far
northeastern sections of the forecast area on Saturday. Into early
next work week, the whole area may have a chance for showers and
Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Saturday
as the ridge builds in. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, heat
indices will run in the low to mid 90s during the hottest part of
the day. Lows will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2013
Clouds have been decreasing across the region this morning and this
trend is expected to continue throughout the day today with VFR
conditions expected at all the terminals. Light and variable winds
are expected to give way to a light northeasterly flow later this
morning and into the afternoon ours. A Cu field is likely to
develop this afternoon with bases around 5Kft AGL or so. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm may pop up across southern KY this
afternoon. The coverage is expected to be sparse enough to preclude
an inclusion in the KBWG TAF at this time. Skies are expected to
become clear tonight with VFR cigs/vsbys and light winds.