Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 240549
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
149 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Temperatures below freezing tonight, hard freeze possible
  especially from southern Indiana to the Kentucky Blue Grass.

* Impactful storm system Mon-Tue, windy, with showers becoming
  widespread.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Winds are diminishing gradually and veering to the NE, but temps are
still able to drop fairly efficiently in a dry air mass. Min temp
forecast is toward the low end of guidance and appears to be well on
track. Did make some small changes to the hourly grids to tone down
the winds slightly overnight, but legacy products not impacted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

High pressure ridging from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico
will give us a cool and quiet night tonight. With a generally dry
atmosphere and large surface dew point depressions, fog is not
expected and skies should be mostly clear other than possibly a few
mid/high clouds approaching from the west after midnight. Since the
center of the high will be well to our north, we`ll maintain a
northeast breeze around 5-10 mph through the night, preventing
ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows will generally be in the
upper 20s and lower 30s, though sheltered rural spots in the Blue
Grass region may drop farther.

On Sunday the high to our north will push eastward into the Saint
Lawrence Valley as low pressure spins up east of the Front Range of
the Rockies. Upper clouds will gradually increase, especially in the
afternoon, ahead of the western storm system. With the core of the
high moving away, temperatures will be warmer tomorrow with
afternoon readings peaking from the mid 50s in southern Indiana to
the mid 60s near the Tennessee border.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Sunday night, an upper trough will drop south down the West Coast to
and across Baja California before cutting back to the northeast.
This will push a surface low from the High Plains near the eastern
Colorado/Kansas border towards Lake Superior, where it`s still on
track to arrive Tuesday afternoon.

This system will bring strong southerly winds to southern Indiana
and central Kentucky beginning early Monday morning until ending
early Tuesday night. Rain chances will move in early Monday night
before easing during the day Tuesday, and returning Tuesday night as
the cold front passes.

The deterministic models have had a solid handle on timing and
agreement the last couple of days, and this trend continues. The GFS
and Euro continue to show very stable model soundings through the
whole event. The NAM which tends to be more aggressive, a lot of
times too aggressive, keeps the heaviest rainfall Monday night
stable, but ahead of the line Tuesday night, it has up to 600-1,000
J/kg of MLCAPE. With the strong wind shear in place this could give
a chance for a thin line of strong to severe storms, but given the
time of day and the NAM being an outlier, would say thunder is
possible with this second line. Currently, wouldn`t expect much more
unless a trend that direction develops. The GFS and Euro seemed less
excited today than yesterday with severe weather potential.

Monday, stiff south winds are expected to gust to around 35 mph
across the western side of the CWA while gusts will drop off some
towards the east, near 25 mph in our far eastern counties. Still
thinking high temperatures will likely go above guidance with all
the WAA. Keeping temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s for now, but
this could end up warmer.

Monday night, temperatures will remain mild as WAA continues. Rain
showers begin as deep layer moisture transport with isentropic lift
pushes PWATS to around 1.3" over the CWA. Expecting rain with no
thunder. It`s looking like a dry slot will keep things dry for at
least some if not most of Tuesday before the line with possible
thunder pushes through with the front on Tuesday night. Widespread
rainfall totals have dropped a decent amount to between around 0.75-
1.25".

Behind the front, skies will quickly clear leaving Wednesday sun as
surface high pressure drops towards the CWA from the Upper Plains.
Northwest winds ahead of the high will keep CAA in place, limiting
temperatures to the low 50s to near 60. The high will pass east of
the CWA on Friday. Return flow will help lift highs back into the
70s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

VFR conditions will continue throughout the entire period. We`ll
have a mix of FEW and SCT cirrus, but expect a high level ceiling to
develop by this afternoon and evening. Winds will be the main focus
this TAF package. NE winds this morning will gradually become more
ESE by tonight. Wind speeds will mainly remain under 10 kts through
the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...CJP


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