Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 140523
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Short Term (Tonight - Tuesday night)...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon May 13 2013
High pressure to our south and east will provide us with a quiet
night tonight. We should start to see some return southerly flow
after midnight, so our low temperatures will likely occur shortly
after midnight and then even out or possibly even begin to rise a
bit by sunrise. This non-diurnal pattern makes forecasting the
actual low tricky...for now will go with minimum temps tonight in
the 40s with the coolest readings in the Blue Grass and the warmest
west of I-65.
We`ll have plenty of sunshine on Tuesday with southwest winds
bringing very warm air into the region. High temperatures should
range from the upper 70s east to the lower 80s west. Southwest
breezes will probably gust into the 20-25mph range in the afternoon.
Tuesday night southwest breezes and warm temperatures will continue
as we sit between high pressure to our south and a gathering storm
system to our north and west. Low temperatures will be in the lower
60s under mostly clear skies.
.Long Term (Wednesday - Monday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 13 2013
Surface high pressure will shift south and east Wednesday as a low
crosses southeastern Canada. Aloft the ridge in place will begin to
shift east as well. Wednesday will be quite warm with southwesterly
flow and temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s. The area looks
to remain dry through the day on Wednesday. However, as the front
from the northern low pressure system drops south and stalls out,
rain chances will increase. The best chance for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday night will be across southern Indiana and
north central Kentucky. The better chance for rain across the entire
area will come on Thursday as a shortwave crosses the region. With
increased clouds and precipitation temperatures on Thursday will be
a bit cooler, in the mid to upper 70s.
The pattern looks to remain unsettled through the remainder of the
long term. Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms can be
expected through Monday. As mentioned in the previous discussion,
these are notoriously hard to time, so will continue with low
chances for precipitation. There does look to be some diurnal
component to the rain chances, so the highest pops will mainly be
during the heat of the day.
Temperatures will remain warm through the weekend. Highs will range
from the upper 70s to the mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue May 14 2013
High pressure in control will provide VFR conditions through the TAF
period, with just a scattered mid-level cloud deck through the
morning hours. The surface high will start to shift southeast,
allowing south-southwest return flow by daybreak. Mixing and a
tightening pressure gradient by this afternoon will allow gusts over
20 knots, mainly at SDF and LEX. Wind gusts will subside shortly