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000
FXUS66 KLOX 231218
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
518 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS...AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 6 OR 7 DAYS AND
SHOULD INCREASE THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN A
WARMING TREND SHOULD START TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...
NOT MUCH CHANGES TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
WILL SPIN OVER OREGON THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE SOME EACH DAY AS WELL PEAKING WITH A PLUS NINE MB GRAD TO
KDAG SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY A HUMONGOUS EDDY IS SPINNING AND
THE MARINE LAYER IS UP TO 3700 FEET AND WILL TOP OUT OVER 4000 FEET
BY SUN UP. ALL THE LIFT AND CYCLONIC TURNING WILL BRING SOME DRIZZLE
TO THE SAN GABRIEL FOOTHILLS. ODDLY THE MAINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN IS
NOT VERY ROBUST THIS MORNING...PERHAPS THE EDDY IS TOO VIGOROUS AND
INSTEAD OF LIFTING MARINE STRATUS IT IS ACTUALLY MIXING THE CLOUDS
OUT. EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO FORM ITS LIKELY THAT THEY
WILL BY DAWN. THE SBA SOUTH COAST SHOULD STAY CLEAR AS THE NORTH
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS OUT. THE CENTRAL COAST CLOUDS ARE
ANOTHER MATTER AND THERE IS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO
KEEP THE AREA CLEAR THIS MORNING. STILL ITS HARD TO KEEP CLOUDS OUT
OF THE SMX AREA SO WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS THERE.

WINDS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO YDY. ISSUED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE ANTELOPE VLY AND CENTRAL COAST. THE MTNS AND THE
SBA SOUTH COAST WILL BE CLOSE BUT LIKELY JUST UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 4 TO 8 DEGREES BLO NORMALS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FCST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOOK FOR A
LITTLE MORE MARINE LAYER EACH NIGHT AND MORNING AND SLOWER CLEARING
EACH AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL DIP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY AS WELL.
STILL BREEZY BUT PROBABLY MOSTLY BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
MDLS AGREE THAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO
A TROF AND MOVE SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. MDLS INDICATE THAT THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO DECREASE AND THIS SHOULD BE THE BIGGER
WEATHER FACTOR. THE DECREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW EARLIER
CLEARING AND A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS.
DESERT AND MTN TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE MUCH.

THE TUESDAY WEDNESDAY FCST IS A LITTLE MURKIER. BOTH MDLS PUSH THE
TROF SOUTHWARD BUT THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND THE EC IS SLOWER THE
EC IN FACT BRINGS 24 HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. THIS IS A
LITTLE EXTREME ESP FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. RAMPED UP THE CLOUDS
AND COOLED TEMPS SOME BUT NEED TO SEE SOME MDL RUN TO RUN CONSTANCY
BEFORE JUMPING ON THE RAIN BANDWAGON.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1218Z.

MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z AT
COASTAL AND VALLEY TERMINALS SOUTH OF KSBA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TERMINALS. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
IS POSSIBLE AT KSBA AFTER 23Z.

KLAX...MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
16Z...OR 18Z AT THE LATEST. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 07Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
13Z...OR 16Z AT THE LATEST. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 10Z TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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