147
FXUS66 KLOX 062135
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
235 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...06/234 PM.

Dry conditions, warming temperatures, and areas of breezy north
to northwest winds are expected this week into the weekend. Low
clouds and perhaps patchy fog could return to coastal areas by the
end of this week and the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...06/234 PM.

Broadly cyclonic flow aloft over much of the CONUS will be
reinforced this week by multiple disturbances pivoting around deep
low pressure across the central states. Southwest California will
be along the southwest periphery of the cyclonic flow, where the
influence of high-amplitude ridging off the Pacific Coast will be
experienced through this week. This will translate to a warming
trend throughout the week, with high temperatures reaching the
mid 70s to lower 80s in most areas by Thursday. Light to moderate
offshore flow, facilitated by modest offshore pressure gradients,
will further enhance the warming trend. These gradients will be
sufficiently tight to foster Wind Advisory level gusts in a
Sundowner regime across southern Santa Barbara County, and also
over the I-5 Corridor and surrounding mountains and foothills --
at times through Tuesday night. Otherwise, dry conditions are
expected areawide through mid-week.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...06/234 PM.

An upper low is forecast to cut off in the western portion of the
aforementioned broadly cyclonic flow aloft, meandering along a
highly uncertain track over the southwest states through the
upcoming weekend and early next week. Model solutions vary
significantly regarding the trajectory of this system, resulting
in uncertainty regarding sensible weather elements across the
forecast area.

If the upper low stays farther east across the Four Corners
region and southern Rockies, leaving upper ridging over the
forecast area, then considerably warmer temperatures well into
the 80s will occur in many areas by this weekend and completely
dry weather would occur. This general outcome appears most
probable (50% chance of occurrence). Farther-west tracks of the
upper low close to southern California would correspond to cooler
temperatures and perhaps non-zero precipitation chances -- though
this general solution appears unlikely (10% chance of occurrence).
Upper low tracks in between these two regimes would correspond to
dry conditions and temperatures closer to normal. Patchy low
clouds and fog could return farther inland by this weekend, with
additional rounds of local gusty winds, depending on the track of
the upper low.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1827Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of the
weak inversion was 1900 ft with a temperature of 13 C.

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing except moderate
confidence for KPRB and KLAX KLGB and KSMO where there is a 20-30
percent chance of low MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys between 09-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of
low MVFR to IFR cigs from 11Z-17Z. There is a 30% chance of an E
wind component 09Z-15Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF with VFR conds expected.

&&

.MARINE...06/128 PM.

In the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
In the southern two zones (PZZ673/676), winds will increase to
gale force by afternoon, then will continue thru late tonight.
Gale force winds are likely again Tue afternoon into Tue night
(70% chance). Gale Warning has been extended thru Tuesday night
for this area. Otherwise, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
and seas are expected thru late Wed night. In the northern zone
(PZZ670), SCA conditions are likely thru Wed night. There is a
50-60% chance of gale force winds Tue afternoon into Tue night.
SCA conds are not expected in the outer waters Thu thru Fri.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in
the forecast. Thru Wed night, winds are expected to reach SCA
levels during the afternoon/eve hours. Seas may remain at or above
SCA levels tonight thru Wed morning even after the winds decrease.
SCA cond are not expected Thu thru Fri.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate confidence in the
forecast. Expect SCA level winds across much of the SBA Channel
during the late afternoon thru late night hours today and Tue
(60-70% chance), with slightly stronger winds Tue. There is a 30%
chance of gales across western portions of the channel late Tue
afternoon into Tue night. In the southern inner waters, there is a
40% chance of SCA level winds across NW portions from Anacapa
Island to Malibu in the late afternoon/eve hours today and Tue.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 349-351-377-378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 4 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 2 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 378-381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late
      Tuesday night for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Cohen
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...RM/DB
SYNOPSIS...Cohen

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox