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000
FXUS66 KLOX 140326 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
825 PM PDT MON MAY 13 2013

***UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION***

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY...BRINING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING NIGHT AND
MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HEAT WAVE NOW AS
A WEAK TROF MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. ALREADY SEEING A BETTER
ONSHORE PUSH TODAY AND THIS WILL GET STRONGER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. EXPECTING A GOOD 10 DEGREES OF COOLING TOMORROW AND ANOTHER
10-15 DEGREES WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MOST AREAS BACK TO NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MARINE LYR WILL BE SHALLOW TONIGHT AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION, BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
CLOUDS STARTING TO CREEP UP THE ORANGE/SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST LATER
TONIGHT AND MAY JUST CLIP SOUTHERN LA COUNTY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH POTENTIALLY SOME DENSE FOG THERE. BETTER CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECTING TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS AS
WELL. VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THURSDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE
TONIGHT. SHOULD BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 35 MPH.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER TROF DROPS INTO THE WEST
COAST FRI, BRINGING DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN ANOTHER FEW DEGREES WITH A
DEEPER MARINE LYR. THEN TURNING SHARPLY WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS AND LOW LVL FLOW TURNS BACK
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND EVEN SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING IT TO
GET AS WARM AS THESE LAST TWO DAYS, BUT COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 100 BY
MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING DUE TO
GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS COMBINED WITH A LINGERING WARM AND DRY AIR MASS.
ALSO OF NOTE...IS THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
CATALINA ISLAND THIS EVENING...AS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THESE WINDS HAVE CAUSED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES THIS EVENING WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT. THESE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS CATALINA ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
BRIEF...WITH IMPROVING HUMIDITIES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

WHILE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND
WITH IMPROVING HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS ON
TUESDAY...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GUSTY ONSHORE
WINDS WILL IMPACT THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
IN FACT...HUMIDITY LEVELS BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH BRIEF SINGLE DIGIT READINGS IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH NEAR LAKE PALMDALE.
WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OF LONG ENOUGH DURATION
TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0005Z...HI CONFIDENCE FOR TAFS AT KBUR...KVNY...KWJF
AND KPMD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TUE. HI CONFIDENCE
OVERALL FOR KSBP AND KSMX EXCEPT FOR MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING WHICH
COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO TOO LATE. HI CONFIDENCE OVERALL FOR KPRB
EXCEPT MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS 12Z-15Z...AS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS
MAY NOT DEVELOP THERE. FOR KSBA...OVERALL HI CONFIDENCE WITH LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND MVFR VSBYS 12Z-16Z.
HOWEVER THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS
COULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD TUE MORNING. GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE FOR
KOXR WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU TUE EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
10Z-20Z...ALTHO THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR
CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD LATE TONIGHT AND MON MORNING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL FOR KLAX AND KLGB AS THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE
AIRFIELDS LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS AND SCT LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL FOR THE CURRENT TAF AS THERE
IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS AND SCT LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST 13Z-20Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS MOST OF TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY 05Z TUE EVENING.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU TUE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
FIRE WEATHER...GOMBERG
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...RAT

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