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000
FXUS66 KLOX 140341
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
840 PM PDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMING...BEFORE A COOL DOWN
ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS AND BRINGS BACK LOW CLOUDS. THE
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
MINOR TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS AROUND 1400 FT
DEEP AT LAX EARLY THIS EVENING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED
ALONG THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND SHOULD EXPAND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND LOCALLY INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO MOVE UP THE COAST TO VTU COUNTY AND POSSIBLY SBA COUNTY
S COAST LATE TONIGHT AS AN EDDY DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE L.A./VTU MTNS MAINLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY W WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. GUSTY N
CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SBA S COAST AND MTNS FOR A
WHILE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CA TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE E PAC INTO CA FRI THRU SUN...ALTHO THE
UPPER TROF WILL WEAKEN SOME ON SUN. THE MARINE LAYER PATTERN WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN TO ALL COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEYS
FRI NIGHT AND PERSIST NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THRU SUN. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE WEEKEND. DECENT ONSHORE
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...
WITH GUSTY W TO SW WINDS EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND OVER
THE L.A. COUNTY MTNS. TEMPS OVER THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRI THRU SUN...ALTHO SAT SHOULD BE
THE COOLER OF THE THREE DAYS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...EXCITEMENT FACTOR EXTREMELY LOW NEXT WEEK.
MODELS NOT REALLY IN GREAT AGREEMENT BUT NONE OF THEM OFFER ANYTHING
MORE THAN FAIRLY TYPICAL JUNE CONDITIONS. THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE
WARMING THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF IS COOLER BUT NO EXTREMES
EITHER WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0015Z...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU FRI AT KPRB...KSBP...KSMX...
KSBA...KWJF AND KPMD. FOR KOXR...LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL
AFFECT THE AIRFIELD FROM 00Z TO 01Z OR 02Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR CIGS
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD 12Z-18Z...ALTHO THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT DEVELOP. FOR KLAX...LOW CLOUDS AND
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS SHOULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD FROM 00Z THRU ABOUT
18Z...HOWEVER THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS COULD
SCATTER OUT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. AT KLGB...LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED 08Z-18Z. MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE SHOULD AFFECT
KVNY AND KBUR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...ALTHO THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT KBUR DURING THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE AIRFIELDS. GUSTY
W WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN BY LATE FRI.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS SHOULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD FROM 00Z THRU ABOUT
18Z...HOWEVER THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS COULD
SCATTER OUT FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL FRI AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
MOVE BACK IN WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 04Z.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAF. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO HAZE SHOULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING...ALTHO THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...B

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