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239
FXUS66 KLOX 101004
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
304 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...09/214 PM.

A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with
near normal temperatures and no rain. Increasing night and morning
low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow
increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are
expected through Sunday, then cooling possible Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...
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10/302 AM.

Not much in the way of weather excitement on tap as we enter peak
marine layer season. A retrograding upper low will move to the SW
and will be over Las Vegas by this afternoon. It will stay in this
location through Saturday morning before heading east.

Onshore flow and a weak eddy brought plenty of low clouds to the
csts/vlys south of Pt Conception, but there was not enough of a N
push to get the clouds around the point and up into the Central
Coast. Decent onshore flow to the north and east will prevent an
early burn off, but skies should be clear by noon at the latest.
Max temps today will fall 3 to 5 degrees across the coasts but
mtns and interior will see 2 to 4 degrees of warming.

The cyclonic flow from the low will combine good differential
heating to the mtns and will destabilize the atmosphere over the
mtns. The flow into the mtns, however, will be from the NE and
will be very dry (PWATs ~.2") and this will greatly limit the
convective threat. Still a non zero but less than 10 percent chc
of convection tomorrow but see the far more likely scenario being
some afternoon CU development.

The low clouds will make it to the Central Coast tonight as well
as the rest of the csts/vlys south of Pt Conception. Saturday
will be similar today with similar clearing times and
temperatures.

A little ridge slides into the area on Sunday. The ensembles show
that this will reduce the low cloud coverage in the morning but
with the onshore flow still increasing this forecast may turn out
to be a little optimistic. Rising hgts will lead to rising temps
and most areas will end up 1 to 3 degrees warmer compared to
Saturday. While the coasts and vlys will have near normal temps
the mtns and the interior will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...10/1234 AM.

A weak upper low will move over the area from the west during the
xtnd period. It will usher in a prolonged period of May Grey. At
the sfc there will be strong (7-9 mb) onshore flow to the east and
moderate onshore flow (5-6 mb) to the north. The lowering hgts
and cyclonic turning will combine with onshore flow to bring
extensive night through morning low clouds and fog to the csts and
most of the vlys. The strong onshore flow will result in slower
clearing and may bring no clearing to a few beaches. The cyclonic
turning aloft may also provide just enough lift to create some
morning drizzle esp along the foothills.

The strong onshore push to the east will result in breezy
conditionsacross the mtns and interior with low end advisory
level gusts possible in the afternoon.

Max temps will cool both Mon and Tue and then change little on Wed
and Thu. Max temps will be 2 to 4 degrees blo normal across the
csts/vlys but will be 3 to 6 degrees above normal across the mtns
and the interior.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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10/1004Z.

At 0800Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2100 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3200 feet with a max temperature of 19 C.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 12Z TAF package. Timing of
dissipation of CIGs this morning for coastal/valley sites could be
+/- 2 hours of current forecast. For tonight, high confidence in
return of CIG/VSBY restrictions for sites south of Point
Conception and moderate confidence for KSMX. However, only
moderate confidence in timing of return.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of
MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 20Z forecast. For
tonight, high confidence in return of MVFR CIGS, but only moderate
confidence in timing (could be +/- 2 hours of current 02Z
forecast). No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of
MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 17Z forecast. For
tonight, high confidence in return of MVFR CIGS, but only moderate
confidence in timing (could be +/- 2 hours of current 06Z
forecast).
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&&

.MARINE...
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10/304 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Saturday night, high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For
Sunday through Tuesday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level
winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast as winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA levels through Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, winds and
seas will remain below SCA levels for most areas. The only
exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel
where there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds Sunday night and
Monday.
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&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox