Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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742 FXUS66 KLOX 100523 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1023 PM PDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...09/214 PM. A quiet weather pattern is expected through early next week with near normal temperatures and no rain. Increasing night and morning low clouds are expected across coast and valleys as onshore flow increases. Mostly minor day to day changes in temperatures are expected through Sunday, then cooling possible Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...09/825 PM. ***UPDATE*** Despite an increase in onshore flow and an increase in morning low clouds (at least south of Pt Conception), max temps were generally higher today (the Central Coast cooled some). Most max temps came in a few degrees blo normals. The marine layer is off to an early start and now covers the LA county coast and is about to storm into the San Gabriel Vly. The low clouds will likely (propelled by an eddy and increase S to N sfc flow) end up covering all of the coasts and much of the vlys (not the Santa Clarita) from Long Beach to Santa Maria. An increase in the onshore push to the east will likely slow the morning clearing by an hour or so. An upper low retrograding into NV will bring cyclonic flow over the area on Friday. The clear skies and steep sun angles will bring a grip of differential heating to the mtns and this along with the upper lows approach will destabilize the atmosphere. The flow into the mtns will be from the NE and will be very dry (PWATs ~.2") and this will greatly limit the convective threat. Still a non zero but less than 10 percent chc of convection tomorrow but see the far more likely scenario being some afternoon CU development. Will update fcst to include extra low pops and some afternoon CU into the mtns. ***From Previous Discussion*** A rather bland pattern next several days with very little impactful weather and just minor day to day temperature changes. An upper low remains centered near the UT/CO border while high pressure is over the Pac NW. This pattern remains more or less the same through the weekend. Falling surface pressures to the north is beginning to push the marine layer north around Pt Conception and expecting low clouds and dense fog to fill in there overnight. Similar down south but with a deeper marine inversion there won`t be much fog except near the coastal slopes. Temperatures will remain where they are through the weekend for the most part, within a couple degrees with no significant wind issues other than typically breezy onshore interior winds each afternoon. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...09/222 PM. Early next week a weak upper low is expected to move over the area from the west. Along with that strengthening onshore flow will generate a stronger and earlier sea breeze each day, possibly requiring some low end wind advisories across the interior. The marine layer will remain a persistent feature each day, possibly deep enough to produce some drizzle at times with slower clearing. High temperatures will cool a degree or two each day, mainly coast and coastal valleys. && .AVIATION...10/0509Z. At 0434Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 3300 feet with a max temperature of 18 C. Moderate confidence in TAFs. Timing of cig arrival and dissipation may be off by +/-2 hours, and there is a 20% chance of no cigs developing tonight for KSBP, KBUR and KVNY. There is a 20% chance of no clearing for KLAX, KSMO, and KLGB. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF, there is a 20% chance of no- to-minimal clearing through the period. Cigs tomorrow night are expected to be similar to tonight. No significant east wind expected. KBUR...Moderate-to-high confidence in TAF. Cigs will range between BKN008-BKN015, and timing of clearing may be off +/-2 hours. && .MARINE...09/744 PM. The NW to W swell will continue to lower into tomorrow morning. There is a 40-50 percent chance for Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds for the outer waters Saturday afternoon and night, and a 30 percent chance for the Santa Barbara Channel and the nearshore waters of the Central Coast. Otherwise high confidence in winds staying under SCA through the weekend. Similar conditions likely to continue into early next week. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Rorke AVIATION...Schoenfeld MARINE...RK/Schoenfeld SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox