Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
455 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017


...Severe drought conditions across portions of central Missouri...

SYNOPSIS...

Drier than normal conditions have largely persisted since late fall
which has continued through the winter months. This persistent
drier than normal weather has resulted in soil moisture
deficiencies, heightened fire danger, and low streamflows across
area rivers and creeks.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

Precipitation deficits of 4-10 inches since the beginning of the water
year (October 1, 2016) have resulted in several impacts across
the area. Soil moisture percentiles are in the 2-20% range with
the worst conditions across portions of south-central Missouri.
Area streamflows are also very low for this time of year with most
streamflows across the area below the 25th percentile. Several
locations in central and north-central Missouri are much below
normal regarding current streamflow meaning they are beneath the
10th percentile. Much of Missouri and Illinois has also observed
an abnormal number of days with heightened fire danger certainly
due in part to drier than normal fuel moisture values. Highest
Keetch-Byram drought index values of 301-400 exist across portions
of central Missouri indicating a moderate fire potential.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

Abnormally dry weather has by and large persisted roughly since the
beginning of autumn and continued through meteorological winter.
Precipitation deficits for this time period are on the order of 4
to 10 inches across the area, with the highest deficits across
portions of south-central Missouri. To put those deficits in
another perspective, the observed amount of precipitation since
the beginning of the water year is only on the order of 25-35
percent of normal.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

Well below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation
are forecast through the middle of next week.

The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for the next
6-10 days has equal chances for above, below, and near normal
precipitation and slightly favors above normal precipitation.

In the week 2 timeframe, the CPC favors above normal temperatures
and precipitation across the mid-Mississippi Valley.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

Below to well below normal streamflows currently exist across the area.
The lowest streamflows (below 10% of normal) currently reside
across portions of central and north-central Missouri. Lowest
streamflows in Missouri include 3% on the North Fork Salt River at
Hagers Grove, 5% on the Moreau River near Jefferson City, and 3%
on the Maries River at Westphalia.

The area is expected to receive near to above normal precipitation over
the next 5 days, including 2 light snow events. One to two week
precipitation is also favored to be above normal from the Climate
Prediction Center, which may help streamflows climb back closer to
normal.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

The next drought information statement is scheduled to be issued next
Thursday, March 16th, 2017.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

LOCAL WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND WATER INFORMATION:
http://www.weather.gov/saintlouis

MIDWEST CLIMATE CENTER DROUGHT INFORMATION PAGE:
http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/cliwatch/drought/drought.jsp

MISSOURI STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
http://climate.missouri.edu
MISSOURI DNR DROUGHT PAGE:
http://www.dnr.mo.gov/env/wrc/droughtupdate.htm

ILLINOIS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli
ILLINOIS WATER SURVEY DROUGHT PAGE:
http://www.isws.illinois.edu/hilites/drought/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL:
http://www.drought.gov

ADDITIONAL WATER INFORMATION:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGICAL PREDICTION
SERVICE (AHPS):  http://water.weather.gov
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:  http://water.usgs.gov
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS:  http://www.nwo.usace.army.mil/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between
a number of state and federal agencies including the National
Weather Service, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the
National Drought Mitigation Center.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this information,
please contact:

Mark Britt or
Jayson Gosselin
Climate Services Focal Points
--or--
Mark Fuchs
Senior Service Hydrologist

National Weather Service Saint Louis Missouri
636-441-8467
w-lsx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

Gosselin



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