Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 301426 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
926 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.UPDATE...
After coordination with the METWATCH forecaster, have issued a
High Wind Warning for our NE six counties until 4 PM. Along the
backside of deepening cyclone near Wichita, a strong northerly
LLJ of around 50 knots at 850mb was arcing cyclonically from
Liberal, KS down to Floydada. Recent West TX mesonet obs at Aiken
and Vigo Park have already eclipsed sustained 40 mph as sufficient
mixing ensues along the southern terminus of thicker clouds.
Forecast soundings show a low probability of widespread 58+ wind
gusts, so this event should be dominated by sustained 40 mph or
better. High resolution models agree well in the LLJ departing
swiftly NE through the afternoon, so winds should scale back
accordingly from W-E.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

AVIATION...
Low CIGS at the MVFR level, associated with a strong upper level
system moving across the Texas Panhandle, will continue to affect
KPVW and KCDS for the next hour or so. Otherwise, this same system
will bring very strong northwesterly winds to all TAF sites
through mid evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Unseasonably strong upper level low pressure over the eastern
Texas Panhandle this morning will move into southeast Kansas later
today, deepening by another 100 meters at the 500 millibar level.
This will further tighten height gradients, especially across the
northeastern 2/3 of our area, enough for what looks like solid
Wind Advisory level winds. Solutions also indicate this could be a
close call for High Wind Warning level wind speeds from the
southeast Texas Panhandle across at least the northern part of the
Rolling Plains. This may depend on if deep enough mixing will
occur to tap into stronger flow near 750 millibars. We will
continue monitoring trends of the potential for warning level wind
speeds.

Otherwise, it will remain chilly today. The freeze warning
remains in effect through 9 am mainly north and west of Lubbock;
winds have remained blustery enough and cloud cover persistent
enough that only the far northwest corner has hit the freeze mark,
but everywhere else is within one or two degrees. Enough cold air
aloft and mid level moisture will spread over to retain areas of
cloud cover through the day, especially northeast zones. The
southern end of the deformation axis will continue very light rain
or snow just into our far north over parts of Castro and Swisher
Counties in particular, through mid morning, but unlikely for
significant accumulations. Checking with local law enforcement
indicated light snow at 330 AM both Tulia and Dimmitt, but not
accumulating. Skies will tend clear tonight with low moving far
enough away. Winds will back off through the evening, and another
chilly night will follow tonight; currently not indicating a
significant freeze threat.

LONG TERM...
Upper flow will back from northwesterly early Monday to westerly
Monday night and Tuesday allowing warmer and drier to settle in.
The mid week trough digging southeast from the Rockies has trended
slightly stronger also with indications of at least meager
moisture and instability. Still not enough for us to increase
thunder chances into any solid categories, but adequate for
fringe thunder mention some areas late Tuesday and Wednesday as a
cooler airmass follows a cold front late Tuesday. Wednesday will
be the coolest day in the work week, along with solid northerly
winds perhaps in the high breezy or windy category. Comfortably
warmer temperatures will develop late in the week and especially
over the weekend with an early weekend ridge axis protruding
overhead. Moisture return on the backside of the ridge late next
weekend is a little dubious at this point, so favoring no thunder
chances through the weekend. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ022-023-028-029-
035>038-042>044.

High Wind Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ024>026-
030>032.

&&

$$

93



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