Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 181138
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
538 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.AVIATION...
Flight categories have been bouncing around between IFR and MVFR,
with even some periods of VFR and LIFR thrown in, at all the
terminals overnight and we expect that trend to continue for the
next several hours. Conditions will slowly improve after 12 or 13
UTC with VFR expected area-wide by 16 UTC - although there is an
outside chance MVFR could linger at KCDS. Also, patchy fog could
return late tonight and lower visibilities, mainly for KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

SHORT TERM...
At 230 am, the remaining light rain showers were moving northward
into the panhandle following a vort lobe pivoting north around an
upper low centered over nrn NM/srn CO. There is enough low-level
moisture to support patchy fog across the area, moreso in the
Rolling Plains. The fog and low stratus will gradually diminish
after sunrise.

The broad upper-low/trough will translate slowly northeast today
across West Texas and the southern plains. The airmass will be
drying out and large-scale upward motion will be very weak so we
don`t expect any more showers despite the trough crossing overhead.
Warmer temperatures will accompany the developing southwest breezes
and highs this afternoon should be mainly in the middle to upper
50s. The southwest breezes should keep fog formation at bay tonight
on the Caprock, however moisture progs suggest fog may reoccur in
the far southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains, so we
have added a mention of patchy fog for those areas. Overnight lows
should be mainly in the 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM...
A progressive series of upper level troughs will affect the area
through the week ahead. Unfortunately, we will see mostly wind
with little precipitation from the trough train.

Thursday will begin to see the increased surface winds despite
short wave ridging aloft. Stronger winds at 700mb will spread over
the southern portion of the South Plains during the day on
Thursday allowing for surface winds to become breezy. The first
of the aforementioned troughs will impact the area on Friday as a
compact short wave brings an increased height gradient. Although,
this gradient will most notably affect the Panhandle. This short
wave will quickly be followed by another on Saturday,
strengthening as it moves out onto the Southern Plains. We will
again see strong winds with this system but will also bring a
chance of precipitation. However, chances are small and the amount
of precipitation is not expected to be that great either. This is
due to the fact that the atmosphere will have moisten from the top
down and very dry low levels. Moisture wrapping around the system
may bring an additional chance of rain or snow to the Panhandle
Saturday night into Sunday morning. A cold front will follow early Sunday
morning keeping the winds up during the day on Sunday with cooler
temperatures. The wind train is full speed ahead after Sunday
with another progressive system moving onto the Plains Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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