Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 212247

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
547 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016/

The theme of large scale subsidence will continue through at least
Saturday. An upper level ridge moving across Texas tonight and
tomorrow will lead to a healthy increase in thickness values on
Saturday. Surface cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado and lee
troughing in New Mexico will boost southwesterly winds across the
local region. Both of these factors will result in a quick warmup
of temperatures early this weekend. Afternoon temperatures on
Saturday will be on the order of 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal

Ridging will remain in place, for the most part, through much of
the long term portion of the forecast. There will be a couple of
weak shortwaves that move across the area, the first on Sunday
with another one on Tuesday. The bulk of energy from the wave on
Sunday will pass south of the forecast area and be far enough east
of the area that southwesterly wind at the surface will develop.
This will help to bump temperatures into the mid to upper 80s on

Surface flow will back some on Monday to the southeast which will
help to pull a bit more low-level moisture back into the region
moderating temps a few degrees downward in the afternoon. The next
wave that passes on Tuesday will do so fairly fast, and the axis
of the wave will be east of the forecast area by Tuesday night.
Models continue to try and break out precipitation along and east
of the Caprock during the daytime and have a hard time seeing how
this will occur as the dryline will be very diffuse with little
convergence along it, the best lift will be east of the area by
the afternoon, and potential mid/high cloud cover could limit
surface-based heating. Models also keep a small sliver of PoPs
across the northern Rolling Plains Tuesday night as a weak front
pushes into this area with the departing lift of the shortwave.
Opted to leave this in as there could be enough convergence to get
some precipitation to form.

For Wednesday through the end of next week, another ridge will
develop and move across the region. The front early Wednesday
morning will keep temperatures in check and the ridge will already
start to weaken before temperatures have a chance to really warm
up under the ridge. Dry forecast will continue into next weekend
as well.



.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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