Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 161959
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
259 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Subtle upper level ridge only producing clouds where it interacts
with highest elevations in the Rockies evident on satellite imagery
will shift east over the next 48 hours. Shortwave troughs will
begin to buckle upper level flow in the ridges wake. Surface winds
will remain light and primarily out of the south until the
shortwave troughing lines up with the Pacific trough on Friday and
increasing but still mostly southerly winds begin advecting Gulf
moisture into the Rolling and South Plains. Deeper moisture will
remain off the Caprock in the Rolling Plains but our entire CWA
will see dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s by Friday afternoon.

Guidance depictions mostly agree on the presence of a trough by late
Friday though differ with evolution and timing of the depth and
location of the lowering mid level heights. ECMWF is sharper and
more progressive which would indicate better chance of showers
and storms for some of the South Plains Saturday afternoon and
Sunday night, while the GFS sharpens the trough just east of us
into Oklahoma and central Texas which would favor the Rolling
Plains with a glancing blow late Saturday into Sunday. Nonetheless
we`ll see a surface cold front push south through our area late
Saturday through Sunday morning. Biggest question will be whether
any showers or storms will be associated with the front as it
passes. Scaled SB POPs down considerably though elevated POPs seem
appropriate for points east of here. Otherwise we`ll see pleasant
and seasonable temps through the week, even slightly warmer on
Wed as the ridge axis is overhead. The cold front drops us back
down into the 60s for highs on Sunday and rebounding back into
the 70s for the beginning of next week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

55



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