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000
FXUS64 KLUB 171749
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.AVIATION...
MORNING BOUT OF STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES TO CLEAR AND WILL EXIT
KCDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BEYOND THAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN KLBB AND KCDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A VERY REMOTE CHANCE IT COULD SPARK A
STORM...BUT PROSPECTS OF THIS ARE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
KCDS TAF. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK WESTWARD
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND TEND TO HOLD THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND BEST PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
NORTHWARD. THAT SAID...KCDS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...PERHAPS EVEN LIFR IF THE MOISTURE SURGE IS BETTER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB LATE TONIGHT UNDERNEATH
THE STRENGTHENING LLJ. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN VISIT BOTH TERMINALS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

UPDATE...
THE FOG HAS LIFTED AND LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHICH WILL SEE THE SUN VERY SOON. HAVE UPDATED
THE PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
HEAT...WITH MANY SPOTS NEAR OR ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THE
EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND HELP KEEP HIGHS
DOWN IN THE 90S. OF NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH AT LUBBOCK IS 101
DEGREES /SET IN 1996/...SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER THIS
CAN BE TOUCHED OR ECLIPSED. AS REFLECTED IN THE BROAD FOG/STRATUS
DECK THIS MORNING...THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MADE A STRONG PUSH WELL
UP ONTO THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WAS
ALREADY MIXING OUT AND EXPECT THE EFFECTIVE DRYLINE TO STRETCH
ROUGHLY FROM A TULIA TO GUTHRIE LINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EYES
WILL BE ON THIS BOUNDARY FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED MOIST CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MINIMAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
WILL KEEP THE INSTABILITY CAPPED LOCALLY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
MAY BE TO OUR EAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY FORM WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INTENSE HEATING ARE
MAXIMIZED. THAT SAID...IF A STORM CAN FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
LOCALLY...THERE WILL BE STRONG INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND MODEST
SHEAR...SO IT WOULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY. THUS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH POPS AT OR
BELOW 10 PERCENT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

UPDATE...
FOG AND LOW STRATUS FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A HART TO
LUBBOCK TO POST TO ASPERMONT LINE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS. FOG HAS BEEN LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...WITH THE LUBBOCK
AIRPORT DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/8 MILE RECENTLY...THOUGH WE DO EXPECT
THE VISIBILITIES TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
HENCE...HAVE CHOSEN TO HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH SHORT TERM
FORECASTS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED ATTM.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...
CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS AROUND FOG AND STRATUS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CHILDRESS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1 MILE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND IN
WAKE OF A RETREATING DRYLINE.

MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS QUICKLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HOTTEST DAY OF 2013 THUS FAR WILL SEE AREAS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE SOARS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S UNDERNEATH H85 TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C.

KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...H70
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13-14C DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS ANEMIC. DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING WILL BE TOO
STOUT TO PROMOTE CONVECTION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES BEHIND THE RETREATING DRYLINE AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEREFORE ONLY
MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID
60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THENCE DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING JUST TO OUR EAST.  THIS WILL PLACE REGION IN
FAIRLY STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH
TIME. SYSTEM EVOLUTION INTO SUNDAY REMAINS COMPLEX WITH A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE PARENT LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AS NEXT LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS NWRN LOW STALLS OUT AS BLOCKING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.  THE RESULT OF
THIS FOR US WILL BE A SLOSHING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND THEN THINGS WILL STAY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST. WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT PERIOD--PLEASE
SEE LBBFWFLUB. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY LOW
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT
OF SENSIBLE WX CHANGE. HOWEVER...INTO THURSDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE OUT EAST WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  93  55  87  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         61  95  58  90  56 /  10  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     59  96  57  90  58 /   0  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  97  58  90  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       65  98  59  91  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  96  60  91  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    65  98  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     68  99  64  95  61 /  10  20  20   0  10
SPUR          65 102  61  95  62 /  10  20  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     70 101  64  99  63 /  10  20  20   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

23/99/99