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000
FXUS64 KLUB 151121
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
IS ANTICIPATED TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT SRLY WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE AFTN HOURS /15-17 KTS/.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED TO NEAR KCDS...ALTHOUGH
LATEST RADAR SIGNATURE INDICATED A WANING TREND.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WELL SOUTH OF KCDS
AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION FOR KCDS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTN ATTM...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THIS EVENING...PRECIP
WILL SHIFT EAST OF KCDS AND SRLY WINDS WILL DECLINE A BIT TO AOA
10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE....ROLLING PLAINS AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NNE. THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS
OF COURSE COURTESY OF THE UA WEAKNESS THAT HAS TREKKED NNE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES...THUS NEARING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT...HAVE
TRANSLATED SSE FROM THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES TO ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THIS LINE WAS CHARACTERIZED BY EMBEDDED HEAVIER ECHOES AS
NOTED BY THE TEXAS TECH MESONET SITES A FEW HOURS AGO AT DORA NEW
MEXICO AND MORTON /A QUICK THREE-TENTHS OF AN INCH WITHIN ONE HOUR/.
HOWEVER...THIS LINE HAS SINCE LOST ITS STRENGTH AND LINEARITY LOOK.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DISPLAY THE UA WEAKNESS MOVING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY THUS SHIFTING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES TO THE ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...TO FINALLY EAST OF THE FA BY
16/00Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED TO BE LIGHT IN GENERALLY BUT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH/ IF TRAINING OCCURS. AS THE WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION...UA RIDGING WILL COMMENCE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE DESERT
SW...WITH THE CENTER NOTED ACROSS NERN OLD MEXICO. AS
SUCH...INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGESTS A WARMER DAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
ENSUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S/...AND THEREFORE IT IS NO SURPRISE TO SEE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WITH FORECAST
SOLUTIONS DISPLAYING AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SAID CENTER OF THE RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A LOW
LEVEL FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE DRYLINE /AND A NEARBY SFC TROUGH/...WILL
CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTN. THIS IS OF IMPORTANCE TO US BECAUSE
ADEQUATE WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO NEAR/MOVE ACROSS
THE FAR SWRN TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY MAY ALLOW HIGH TERRAIN STORMS TO MOVE
INTO THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN BACKED TO THE SE AND REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST. AT THE
VERY LEAST SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR PRECIP TO MOVE OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN NM. CHC POPS FOR EACH OF THOSE SCENARIOS IS
WARRANTED.

CHANGE COMES MIDWEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO ALLOW UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO THE SW FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
TO THE CNTL PLAINS RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NM AND EVEN LESS FAVORABLE TOWARD MOVING
THOSE STORMS THAT DO FORM INTO THE FCST AREA. AS A RESULT KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTION IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. TEMPS LIKELY TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
UNDER THIS REGIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  65  91  65  88 /  10  10  10  10  30
TULIA         89  67  94  68  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     89  68  92  68  89 /  20  10  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     90  68  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       89  69  95  70  93 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   91  69  93  70  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    90  69  95  71  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     91  70  97  71  96 /  40  10  20  20  30
SPUR          87  69  95  71  95 /  30  10  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     90  73  96  73  98 /  40  10  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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