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000
FXUS64 KLUB 200016
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
716 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN VERY DRY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SAG BRIEFLY INTO KCDS THOUGH PROBABLY NOT
KLBB LATER TONIGHT BEFORE THE DRY WESTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP AGAIN
LATER MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

SHORT TERM...
THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A COMPLEX
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES RIDING AROUND
AND UNDER THE LOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THESE MID/UPPER LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMA SWINGING BY WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
LOCALLY...SO A DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LIFT WORKING ON THE DRY ATMOSPHERE FROM
ONE OF THESE WAVES COULD BRING A RISK OF MORE HEAT BURST ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT /LIKE
WE SAW A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO/ BUT IT APPEARS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUBDUED FROM WHAT WE SAW FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...THE THREAT FOR HEAT BURSTS SHOULD BE LOW.
INSTEAD...THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY /BUT LIGHT/
LATE TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH SAGS THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHT
WITH LOWS BY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NW ZONES
TO MID-60S SOUTHEAST...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRIEFLY RETURN.
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE PLEASANT...BUT GUSTY WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MORNING
BOUNDARY MIXES OUT AND WE TAP HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT. IT DOES
APPEAR THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN TODAY...THOUGH
COUPLED WITH ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL VARY
FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S NEAR FRIONA TO AROUND THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK IN ASPERMONT.

LONG TERM...
INTI AL PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIKELY TO BE DRY...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP SKIRTING ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES...THE BEST CHANCE POSSIBLY COMING MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SWRN KS TO NWRN PANHANDLE THEN MOVING ESEWD.
NOT SOLD ON PRECIP EITHER DEVELOPING OR MAKING IT INTO THE FCST
AREA IF IT DOES...AND WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. SOME HIGH
TERRAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY BUT WITH LESS UPPER
SUPPORT MAKING POPS EVEN LESS LIKELY FOR THE FCST AREA. WILL GET
SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPS AS A COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY TUESDAY AND ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND STILL WITH SLIGHT CHC TO
CHANCE POPS AS ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD...POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR IT TO OF THE DIRTY VARIETY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PULLED BACK INTO THE AREA...MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY
ARRIVING FROM THE PACIFIC...AND A SLOSHING DRYLINE. THURSDAY NOW
LOOKING LIKE IT HAS AS MUCH POTENTIAL AS FRIDAY AND WILL NUDGE
THOSE POPS UP SIMILAR TO WHERE FRIDAYS ARE.

FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY...DRY AND WARM TO HOT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WEST OF
THE DRYLINE WERE RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO THIS POINT HAVE BEEN CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES WHERE
MANY RED FLAG MINUTES HAVE ALREADY BEEN TALLIED. HOWEVER...THIS
CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN WEAKENING A BIT AS OF LATE WITH
ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUS...THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET EASING THE FIRE DANGER.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THOUGH SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY ON
MONDAY...BUT WITH HUMIDITIES AGAIN FALLING TO AND BELOW 10
PERCENT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BOUT OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER FOR MUCH OR ALL OF THE FA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT
ALL DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  83  51  79  50 /   0   0  10   0  10
TULIA         53  87  54  80  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     55  89  56  80  57 /   0   0  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     55  91  56  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       57  93  55  84  58 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   57  91  54  83  58 /   0   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    57  93  56  83  59 /   0   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     61  94  56  85  57 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          60  98  60  84  60 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     65 101  63  89  62 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030.

&&

$$

99/99/05