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000
FXUS64 KLUB 131754
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1254 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW WINDS
AROUND 14 TO 18 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND DECREASE
TO AROUND 10 KTS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TUES MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID-MORNING /15-17 KTS/ WILL
DECLINE A BIT BY LATE AFTN /AOA 13 KTS/...WITH FURTHER DECLINATION
AOA SUNSET /AOA 10 KTS/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILST THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WAS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...THE CUTOFF
LOW WAS FORCED TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES HAS PROMOTED
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...LEADING TD SRLY WINDS AOA 10-20 MPH. THE GRADIENT WILL ENSUE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING...AND THE SFC LOW TRANSLATING TO
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL PROMOTE WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE WSW
WITH SPEEDS OF AOA 15 MPH ANTICIPATED. THESE SLIGHTLY BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE UA
RIDGE WILL ENCOURAGE TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S /3-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORM/. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST GIVEN THE ABOVE NORM TEMPS...SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND RHS FALLING TO AOA 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WILL OPT NOT TO ISSUE
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ATTM...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO RELAX A BIT BY PEAK HEATING...SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWING FOR WIND
SPEEDS TO DECLINE A LITTLE /10-15 MPH/.

TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX BUT STILL EXPECT
SSW WINDS TO BE AROUND 10 MPH AND THUS RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT /50S/. DESPITE AN UA RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE SWRN LOCALES LATE
TONIGHT...DUE TO THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY COMMENCING TO SHIFT NE
TOWARDS THE SUN COUNTRY AND TRANS-PECOS AREAS. A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL
AID TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE CWA...THUS DEWPOINTS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH 40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN LOCALES.

LONG TERM...
STILL ON TRACK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS MAINLY THE
SERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NRN MEXICO OPENS AND MOVES NEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PRECIP FOR
WEDNESDAY LOOKING MORE IFFY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT DIFFER ON THEIR ABILITY TO
CONVECT WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER IN WRN OKLAHOMA. DESPITE
UNCERTAINTIES COULD STILL SEE THE NERN PART OF THE FCST SEEING
SOME CONVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND STILL LOOKS LIKE A SLOSHING DRYLINE PATTERN AND
A CONVECIVE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED. AS A
RESULT WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. MAIN
FEATURE OF THIS PATTERN IS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO KEEPING POPS LOW...SHOULD
SEE TEMPS MOVE UP PER MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  51  86  55  88 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         85  54  86  58  89 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     85  56  87  59  90 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     85  56  86  61  91 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       86  58  86  62  90 /   0   0  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   84  55  84  60  91 /   0   0  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    86  56  86  60  92 /   0   0  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     91  59  90  63  89 /   0   0  10  20  20
SPUR          88  58  87  62  90 /   0   0  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     92  58  89  66  90 /   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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