127
FXUS64 KLUB 041918
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
218 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Main concern for today remains the threat for severe weather this
afternoon which is dependent on the location of the cold front. As
of 2 pm, the cold front is located along a line from the Guadalupe
Mountains to Midland and is continuing to move south but gradually
slowing as it does so. Based on the location of the front the severe
weather threat for our area is not as high as it was earlier today
however any left splitting supercell may still enter our area and
pose a large hail threat mainly across our southern row of counties
hence a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for those
counties until 10 pm. Upper-level lift is still expected to
increase as we go through the late afternoon and early evening as
a shortwave swings across the forecast area. This should lead to
additional shower and thunderstorm development across the South
Plains and Rolling Plains which will shift east through the
evening and come to an end around midnight for most locations.
However, low clouds and the potential for drizzle will continue
through the morning hours. These low clouds will keep temperatures
mild once again overnight only dropping into the 50s. Low clouds
will be slow to dissipate tomorrow but by early afternoon at least
a few peaks of sun are expected. This low cloud cover will keep
temperatures cool tomorrow in the upper 60s to lower 70s despite
the breezy southerly winds. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Ensemble and deterministic models continue to hint at the
possibility for thunderstorm development across the eastern Rolling
Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle Monday afternoon and
evening. An upper level trough and associated low over the western
CONUS will make its way into eastern Colorado early Monday morning,
which will work with the northeastward moving surface low, to push
the dry-line eastward across the FA. However how far east the dry-
line pushes remains uncertain, with recent model guidance suggesting
slightly weaker winds which may work to keep the dry-line over our
far eastern column of counties. If this were to come into fruition,
we could see isolated thunderstorms develop across the far
southeastern Texas Panhandle and eastern Rolling Plains late Monday
afternoon.
The trough will quickly eject north into the High Plains
Monday night allowing for zonal flow to prevail over the forecast
area through mid-week. Surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies
will develop Tuesday tightening the pressure gradient across the
region. This will lead to breezy southwest winds Tuesday and
Wednesday around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. These breezy
conditions in combination with warm temperatures and dry conditions
may lead to elevated to near critical fire weather concerns across
the Caprock. By Thursday we will finally find some relief from the
warmer temperatures as a vertically stacked low over the High Plains
elongates across the southwestern United States which will sling a
cold front across the region into the early morning hours Thursday.
No precipitation is expected with this front sadly but will provide
much cooler temperatures through the end of the week in the 60s and
70s. Our next chance of precipitation arrives Saturday as a
shortwave trough begin to approach the region from western CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MVFR to IFR ceilings continue to remain in place at all three TAF
sites early this afternoon. Clearing will be slow to occur however
VFR conditions are expected to return to the three TAF sites for
at least a few hours this evening. Showers and thunderstorms
should develop south of KLBB this afternoon and move to the
northeast. It currently appears that this activity should stay
south and east of the TAF sites so no prevailing mention has been
included in the TAF at this time however trends will be closely
monitored through the afternoon and evening for possible
inclusion. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to blossom once again
late tonight and remain in place through the end of this TAF
period at all sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...58