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000
FXUS64 KLUB 140452
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.AVIATION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN HAS PUSHED
THROUGH KLBB AND WILL MISS KCDS. NO MENTION OF GUSTS OR BLDU AFTER
06Z AS A RESULT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. MAY SEE CEILINGS APPROACH
MVFR AT KLBB AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...BUT VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH
TERMINALS PRIOR TO THEN. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH
BEGINNING MID-LATE FRIDAY MORNING...AT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...BUT MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS NEAR
MVFR CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS IF
SHOWERS/STORMS CAN MAKE IT INTO KLBB BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTH WINDS FALLING BELOW 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ALL THE WAY UP PAST
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE DOMINATES THE FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...AN EMBEDDED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO EDGE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND IS CURRENTLY CROSSING
INTO TEXAS ACROSS THE BIG BEND.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NNE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS.

AT PRESENT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOP INTO
FRIDAY.  ALL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA THROUGH MID DAY THEN BEGIN ENCROACHING PERHAPS FIRST ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THETA-E MAXIMA AND MOVE
NWRD.  WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 1.5IN...AT LEAST SOME EFFECTIVE RAIN
PRODUCERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIALLY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OF  6-10 EXA EV/G (TO 1.5KJ/KG)
SHOULD BE PRESENT BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD HELP LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO SOME EXTENT ALONG WITH LIMITED SHEAR...MORE OR LESS
ALONG THE EASTERN EXTREMITY OF CONVECTIVE AREA ONLY UP AROUND 30 KTS
(0-6KM).

LONG TERM...
OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE LESS CERTAIN IN THE
COMING DAYS. THE LATEST GFS IS STILL A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. NEARLY THE ONLY LIFT THAT WILL BE GENERATED WILL BE
FROM THE 700-500MB LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DIFFLUENCE AT
250MB IT LOOKS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HAVE EQUAL
CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN PREVIOUSLY IT WAS THOUGHT THAT
SATURDAY WOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCES. THE SOUTH PLAINS STAND THE BEST
CHANCES ON FRIDAY WHILE THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES
ON SATURDAY. LIFT WILL BE MOVING OFF EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...A LACK OF A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HARMS HEAVY
RAIN CHANCES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING OUT ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E FIELDS DURING THE MORNING.

SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE LOW TO NIL WITH MODERATE AND POSSIBLY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MORE LIKELY. AS MOIST AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE THERE WILL BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH VERY LOW NCAPES.
THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONG FOR HEAVY
RAIN CHANCES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE ALSO NOT THE MOST OPTIMAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN. WHAT HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE GOING FOR IT WILL BE
THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. PW WILL PEAK SATURDAY MORNING
AROUND 1.6 INCHES. OVERALL...THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOK TO
BE LESS LIKELY TO COME TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT MAKE AS STRONG RETURN TO
THE REGION AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY MODELS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS TO INVADE WEST TEXAS NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY
FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH THE PANHANDLES WILL STILL
BE FAVORED AT THE MOMENT. JDV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  64  87  64  90 /   0  10  20  20  20
TULIA         96  66  88  66  89 /   0   0  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     95  67  89  66  89 /   0   0  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     93  65  87  67  90 /   0  10  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  70  87  68  89 /   0  10  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   92  65  86  66  92 /   0  20  40  40  20
BROWNFIELD    92  66  86  67  90 /   0  20  30  40  30
CHILDRESS     98  70  95  70  89 /   0   0   0  30  40
SPUR          94  70  91  69  89 /   0  10  20  30  40
ASPERMONT     96  73  94  72  89 /   0  10  10  30  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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