Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 120518
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1218 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

A shortwave trough will transit the central CONUS early Tuesday
morning with little fanfare amidst a generally zonal flow pattern. A
deepening trough starting to move into the Pacific Northwest toward
00Z/Wed with a mid-level transition to southwesterly flow on
Wednesday. Given the mostly overnight transition of tonight`s minor
shortwave feature, wind speeds will perhaps be a few knots lower
than what was evident in the previous few runs. Still have elected
to boost speeds just a bit over MOS given the trends in model bias
over recent weeks. The big question in the short term, if there is
one, will be the intensity of fire weather potential tomorrow
afternoon. At present, we`re looking at RFTI values which could go
either way (remain RFD vs. RFW) in a few of our northwestern
counties.  As such, after coordination with our neighbors, have
elected to maintain the status-quo on Tuesday`s fire weather watch
and see if the evening data makes things any more clear.  Otherwise,
lots of high clouds, mildly breezy and dry conditions, and warmer
than average temperatures to prevail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

A modest shortwave trough ejecting over the Central High PLains
on Wednesday will bring stronger mid-level west-southwest flow
across West Texas during the day. The core of the 700 mb jetmax is
progged to move from the western Panhandles into western OK and
the northern Rolling Plains while another local maximum develops
across the Permian Basin, bringing a relative minimum across our
central and southern zones by late in the afternoon. This pattern
gives us high confidence of gusty conditions much of the day
across our northern counties...and contributing to a greater fire
danger there...while farther south the wind speeds should be
lower and guidance at Lubbock is for sustained speeds around 20
kts...right around the lower bounds to support a critical fire
threat...more on that in the fire weather section. The gusty,
downsloping winds will lead to a very warm day with highs
generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s on the Cap and all 80s in
the Rolling Plains. breezy conditions will likely persist
Wednesday night leading to a very mild night in advance of a
fairly sharp front that will be moving through on Thursday. This
front should race through the forecast area Thursday morning, in a
typically quicker fashion than the medium range guidance, and as
such, we`ve undercut the blended guidance for Thursday`s high
temperatures. As usual, there`s still some uncertainty on the
timing of the front and some spread in the temperature forecast
Thursday, but generally we expect a dropoff from 70s and 80s to
mainly 60s.

With an upper digging southward into AZ Thursday bringing southwesterly
flow aloft atop the deepening frontal zone, there will be some
coupled lift present, but moisture progs suggest there will be too
much dry air for any precip chances Thu, except for perhaps in
the southern Rolling Plains.

By early Friday though, we expect increasing saturation in the
lower atmosphere on E-NE breezes which should result in increasing
cloudiness. While the upper low will still be pretty far west, our
expectation is that upper-level diffluence downstream over West
Texas coupled with this increasing moisture in a persistent
isentropic lift regime will result in rain shower development
across the area. While the degree of lift and moisture appears to
be such that rainfall amounts will be on the light side, generally
a tenth of an inch or less, hopefully coverage will be such that
most areas will see at least a bit of moisture by Friday evening.
We currently show high temperatures in the 50s on Friday, but if
skies are cloudy with showers most of the day, many locations may
not make it out of the 40s. It will be chilly Friday night, with
lows likely approaching freezing across the southwest Panhandle,
but at this time there is not much of a signal for precip., and we
have no frozen precip in the forecast.

For Sat and Sun, much will depend on the evolution of the cutoff
low across the Desert Southwest. A majority of the latest
guidance suggests that it will keep on drifting to the south
before making its eastward turn across northern MX, keeping our
area pretty far removed from its lift, but some solutions show
that it could be close enough to keep the weather "unsettled" with
a chance of showers. Also, we do expect another front to move
through and keep temperatures on the cool side through the weekend
before beginning to edge back up on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds are
expected to become a bit gusty from the west-southwest mid-morning
into afternoon but will then relax late in the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

We will therefore continue the Fire Weather Watch as previously
advertised in hopes that tonight`s data will help to make things
more clear in terms of wind speeds, which at this time look to be
near the lower bounds to support a critical fire threat. From a
practical point of view, we`ll definitely have some potential for
rapid spread tomorrow, but it will be far from our outbreak
patterns that we`ve seen out here.

It will be warm and dry again on Wednesday, with a difference from
tomorrow in that we should see an uptick in wind speeds due to the
shortwave passing to our north. These winds may support critical
fire conditions focused on the far southern Texas Panhandle, while
lower wind speeds (although still elevated) may keep portions of
the area below critical thresholds. Even in those areas though, an
elevated fire danger is anticipated as fuels are still generally
receptive (although greening is quickly occurring in some areas).

Also, a sharp cold front will move through the area early
Thursday morning. This will bring a northerly wind shift that
could adversely affect any active fire(s).

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
TXZ021>024-027>030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...07


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