Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 292305
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
605 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT A BIT MORE PROMISING THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST
ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
ACCORDING TO LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE AND RADAR DATA. SEVERAL
SMALL PINPOINT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SEMINOLE TO
GUTHRIE WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE EXISTS VCNTY OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM LAST EVENINGS STORMS. LIMITED COVERAGE HOWEVER ANTICIPATED AS
AXIS OF MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS WEST TEXAS AS
CENTER REORIENTS TO OUR WEST BY LATE THU. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS DEEPER MOIST PLUME HAS BEEN PUSHED
WELL INTO NM BY EXPANDING RIDGE. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
BEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX PNHDL ON THU THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH HIGHER POPS AS SOME SHORTWV ENERGY
MAY ALSO BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES ON THU LOOK TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THICKNESS VALUES AND CONTINUED WEAK EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGED FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED THIS PERIOD.
THE COOL FRONT THAT HAS BEEN HANGING OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY
WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS OOMPH BY LATE WEEK AND WASH OUT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER FROM AN EASTERN FRONT WILL
NOW TRY ITS HAND FROM THE WESTERN SIDE AS IT RETROGRADES WEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS IT TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION... THIS WILL GIVE US A NICE SETUP FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
STARTING SATURDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A NICE CONVEYOR BELT OF VORTICITY
PLUMES ROUNDING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH...SO THAT MIXED WITH
DECENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY SEVERAL MODELS MAY GIVE US
SEVERAL CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...PWATS ARE NOT
THROUGH THE ROOF...SO THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN EXCITING
EXTENDED RAIN EVENT LIKE WE HAD AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST MONTH...IF
IT DEVELOPS AT ALL. THE MAIN VALUE WILL BE KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG
COUNTRY AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  87  65  87 /  20  20  20  30
TULIA         68  89  67  87 /  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     68  90  67  88 /  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     69  92  69  92 /  20  20  10  20
LUBBOCK       71  92  70  91 /  20  20  10  20
DENVER CITY   70  92  69  93 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    71  93  70  93 /  20  20  10  20
CHILDRESS     74  95  73  93 /  20  20  20  30
SPUR          74  95  72  94 /  20  20  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  97  75  97 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/


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