Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 200447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS PREVAILING FOR MOST/IF NOT ALL/ OF
THIS TAF CYCLE. STRONG COLD FRONT IS ON SCHEDULE TO CLEAR LBB
SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z AHEAD OF A SHIELD OF IFR STRATUS AND SOME FOG.

VISBYS HAVE FALLEN TO AS LOW AS 1/2SM AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THIS THREAT SEEMS MOST PRUDENT AT LBB AND PVW WHEREAS NEARBY
SHRA/TSRA AT CDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR SHOULD KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED
TO AVOID POOR VISBYS.

EXTENT OF LOW CIGS AS FAR NORTH AS KANSAS SUGGEST IFR WILL PREVAIL
ALL MORNING AND LIKELY THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A FEW MODELS
INDICATE CIGS RISING TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTN BEFORE
RESUMING IFR THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT FOR A STRONG COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. ABUNDANT
STRATUS AND FOG AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE WAS NOTED BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
THE VISIBILITY AT HEREFORD PLUMMETED FROM 10 MILES TO JUST OVER 1
MILE IN 20 MINUTES. TEMPS IN THE 40S ALREADY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE CONFIRM THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD ADVECTION...SO HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS LARGELY IN LINE WITH THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR
SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE TRENDS.

POP-WISE...DROPPED MOST PRECIP MENTION FROM THE CAPROCK
TONIGHT...HOWEVER WE STILL EXPECT SOME STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP WWD
TO NEAR THE I-27 AND HWY 87 CORRIDOR LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT AND TRAILING FRONT ALOFT INTERSECT DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF
THE RETREATING DRYLINE.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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