Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 041749
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1149 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR have returned to the terminals late this morning as northerly
winds have carried in drier air. VFR will continue through this
evening with increasing mid-high clouds overnight as a storm
system tracks south of the Big Bend toward Central Texas. Any
precipitation with this system should stay well to the south and
southeast of the terminals tonight and Monday. However, if clouds
do not increase as much as expected, a risk for patchy fog and
sub-VFR conditions may threaten the terminals early Monday
morning. Confidence in this is low though and it has been excluded
from the TAFs ATTM. Otherwise, northerly breezes this afternoon
will become light and variable overnight before picking up from
the south and southwest by Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Light showers and drizzle was all that was left this morning of
yesterday`s cold mess. The center of the upper level low pressure
system was located roughly just south of Sonora, Mexico still
making a southerly trek, though a turn to the northeast is
expected today towards the Big Bend. However, thanks to how far
south the system traveled today, and as the low begins to open
slightly and weaken today moving towards us, its effect on our
weather looks to be lessening. Thus, have pulled PoPs for the
forecast area during the day, and for all but the far southwest
corner where just a slight chance remains that a few showers may
stray overnight.

A weak cold front will push through today also helping to keep much
of the area dry, though this front won`t be serving to really drag
temperatures down...that`s later in the week. It will help to clear
our skies finally, though that means a cool night ahead with lows
below freezing for the northwest half of the forecast area.

LONG TERM...
Not just a lot of change in this morning`s data as compared to the
last couple of nights. Mexican low continues to track from DRT to
TXK on Monday with a couple of trough axes passing to our north--
most notably on Wednesday which will drive arctic air into the
region.  NWRLY to Zonal flow is anticipated for the remainder of the
extended though guidance becomes less consistent with the
handling of a Pacific Coastal ridge by late week.

A few showers continue to be possible Monday afternoon mainly
restricted to the southern Rolling Plains.  Thereafter, the first of
two cold fronts makes its way in to the northern zones early Tuesday
morning with return flow becoming established by the middle of the
afternoon. The more significant front still arrives on Wednesday.
The ECM has been delaying the arrival by a good 5 hours though
these arctic systems typically arrive sooner than later. The ECM
is slightly deeper with the trough to our NW as it approaches as
compared with the GFS20. This will have some effect on highs and
we will continue to favor the faster solution. Some post-frontal
drizzle is possible both Tuesday and Wednesday but won`t make a
mention of it at this point given the uncertainty. A another lobe
of energy rotates around the parent low which looks to get
southerly winds returning as soon as Thursday evening. Thereafter,
things should remain rather quiet with another front sometime next
weekend.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

23/07/23



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