Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS64 KLUB 242013
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
313 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE TROF AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WHILE THE
CENTER OF THE LOW IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NE. WINDS ARE BEHAVING
AS EXPECTED BY BEING OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS BUT MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. ANOTHER UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
QUILEUTE WA WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND END UP OVER SOUTHERN UT BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME
WITH THE SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CO
ROCKIES. THIS WILL HAVE A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA...20-25 MPH. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS
WARM FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CAPROCK
AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALDRICH

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE WOUND-UP SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE
SRN KS AND THE OKLA AND NRN TX PANHANDLES THAN THE GFS. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER WTX WITH A 700MB CORE
OF ABOUT 40 KTS OR SO IN OUR VICINITY. THE RESULT WILL BE GUSTY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS
ARE STILL IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS INTO THE
40S...ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SOME BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE
ARE STILL HOLDING ONTO A NARROW SLIVER OF T-STORM MENTION IN SE
STONEWALL COUNTY LATE IN THE DAY BUT THE CHANCES APPEAR VERY
SLIM AT THIS TIME.

THE DRYLINE REMAINS EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
TRAVERSES THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BACK OFF A FEW DEGREES...BUT
REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONS
TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT MAY DIP INTO THE
AREA AND BRING A PERIOD OF BETTER MOISTURE RETURN ON EASTERLY
WINDS...ALTHOUGH IT IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...DEPICTING A LEAD SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THE TREND...ESPECIALLY IN THE
GFS...IS TO DRY-SLOT THE AREA PRETTY QUICKLY ON FRIDAY...LEADING
TO A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY...AND PUTTING THE ONUS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR OUR RAIN POTENTIAL. THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER ECMWF
RETAINS A PRETTY SOLID CHANCE FOR T-STORMS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OFF
THE CAPROCK. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE TAPERED POPS BACK JUST
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY...HOPEFUL THAT THIS TREND IS FLEETING. BOTH
MODELS NOW INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR RENEWED PRECIP. CHANCES
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE SINKS SWD THROUGH
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.