Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 261136
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE A RUN AT KCDS THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIVES SOUTHWARD. KLBB AND KPVW
ALSO STAND A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA...BUT BEST CHANCES RESIDE AT
KCDS AND HAVE THUS INCLUDED VCTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING TO
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS INTACT FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR LOW CEILINGS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TIMING/OCCURRENCE NEAR TERMINAL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND MINOR
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
FOSTERING MLCAPE IN THE 1-1.5 KJ/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW 1000 FEET WILL LIKELY KEEP
THIS TREND GOING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS STORMS REALIZE
UNPERTURBED MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE TO
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE GIVEN A WEAKLY FORCED REGIME AND VIRTUALLY NO
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ALOFT TODAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING DIGS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHILE UPPER RIDGING BECOMES CENTERED FROM THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE FORMER FEATURE WILL DRIVE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY OWING TO
DIURNAL HEATING...CONTINUED DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AND THE PROXIMITY
OF DEEP LAYER FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS TO MID-
HIGH CHANCE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT GIVEN BETTER CONVERGENCE
FIELDS AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO CYCLONIC FLOW EMANATING FROM
AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A STRONG STORM
OR TWO WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1.5-2 KJ/KG RANGE. WIND GUSTS TO 40-
50 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN A FAIRLY DECENT SUB CLOUD
DRY LAYER WHILE A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT MORE THAN PEA SIZE HAIL.

STORM CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT...WHILE LOCALES ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE ALSO
SEE CONVECTION ORIGINATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO
MOVE IN ON NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW.

LONG TERM...
MAJOR FEATURE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL SERVE AS A BLOCKING FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.
FOR US...THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK THEN
PERHAPS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK. STORMS
WILL QUITE POSSIBLY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING AT 12 AND PERIODS
OF TSTM ACTIVITY WILL EXIST THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS IS REMARKABLY
MORE ASSERTIVE WITH POPS VS A NEARLY DRY ECM. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP...A MODERATION/BLEND OF THE POPS SUGGESTED WOULD SEEM TO BE
THE BEST APPROACH. A BIT OF A RESPITE LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT WITH POPS INCREASING AGAIN
LATE WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF NWRLY FLOW. WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD NOT GET TOO WARM...PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK THOUGH NOTHING TO REALLY
HIGHLIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  62  82  62 /  30  30  20  20
TULIA         88  65  82  63 /  30  30  10  10
PLAINVIEW     88  65  82  64 /  30  30  10  10
LEVELLAND     90  66  83  64 /  30  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       90  67  84  66 /  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   90  65  85  63 /  30  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    90  66  84  64 /  20  40  20  20
CHILDRESS     93  69  88  67 /  50  40  10   0
SPUR          91  67  85  65 /  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     94  69  89  66 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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