Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241744
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1244 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Primary aviation concern will be the possibility of t-storms in
the vicinity of all the terminals this afternoon and evening.
We`ve included a VCTS in the TAFs for the most likely time of
t-storm activity. However, there will be a small chance of -SHRA
or -TSRA continuing throughout the evening. There is also a
potential for some low ceilings early Thursday morning, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. TSRA
chances likely to return Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1044 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Rain showers have mostly ended across the forecast area, although
there is an additional batch of light rain moving northeast from
southeast New Mexico that may move into the southwest South Plains
in the next hour or so. Mid-level moist plume will remain situated
across the area today as upper trough near the 4-corners area
slowly approaches. The extent of heating and destabilization this
afternoon remains somewhat uncertain but we do expect some
additional t-storm development after partial clearing occurs as
capping appears pretty weak. Forecast has been updated for the
remainder of the morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

UPDATE...
RADAR identifying the next batch of showers and thunder lifting
into the southwestern South Plains is more organized than the past
several early this morning, though cloud tops have been warming as
this batch has released from the Pecos Valley. We have updated for
more likely shower and thunder chances mainly on the Caprock this
morning. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

AVIATION...
An upper level impulse will eject northeast across the KLBB and
KPVW TAF sites this morning with showers and possibly
thunderstorms through mid-morning. The greatest TAF details will
continue in the immediate short term, and we will continue
amending as needed when showers and thunder pass by. Activity
appears will remain mostly or entirely west of KCDS at least
through the morning. Thunder expected to regenerate mid to late
afternoon. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

SHORT TERM...

It seems straight forward: deep moisture flow with precipitable
water values around 1.40 to 1.80+ inches will continue to spread
north-northeast into the area today and tonight as an upper trough
lifts out through the central Rockies. Vorticity ribbon will curl
overhead with a lead impulse tracking through the area this morning
along with decent coverage of mostly light activity. A late morning
to early afternoon break would follow, perhaps enough clearing and
warming to allow some recovery of surface-based CAPE again to around
1000 to 1500 Joules per Kilogram, in advance of next weak impulse(s)
later today and tonight with renewed thunderstorm opportunity.

What sounds good and reasonable on paper is somewhat more difficult
to present within gridded forecast output. Today appears less capped
so any warming might quickly lead to regeneration, thus spending
instability more quickly. Impulses aloft also very difficult to
identify using conventional RADAR and satellite, so confidence in
timing mentioned above is not so high. And we also may have
complications of lingering opaque cloud cover into the middle part
of the day which could crimp warming and development of instability.

Overall, it seems we have somewhat less risk today at least for
organized strong thunderstorms. But with the high precipitable water
and parallel flow aloft to surface features, we also retain a risk
for locally heavy rain amounts later today and tonight. We will
indicate fairly widespread chance of thunderstorms today centered
over the middle part of our area, south-southwest to north-
northeast, edging a bit east tonight. And we also are retaining
similar temperatures to previous, i.e. at least several degrees
cooler central and western zones, but only slightly less east.
RMcQueen

LONG TERM...

The Bermuda High story will continue through this weekend, which is
good news for us. Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream around
that high into NM and West Texas, so with continued weaknesses in
the flow, we`ll see daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Those chances do lessen each day, though. As we head into the new
week, models start to take different approaches, none of which are
particularly great for rain prospects here. Our choices look to be a
strong high pressure building over the west and eventually
enveloping our area mid-week...sending us on a warming trend...or a
weaker ridge over the west but a strong tropical system moving onto
the central Gulf of Mexico shoreline...possibly further west. We
would be on the subsidence side of the second choice, so again,
warmer and drier. Either way, went ahead and trimmed the Blend PoPs
starting Monday back to slight chance from chance.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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