Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 181123
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
623 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Weak ridging aloft through tonight as the upper low continues to
spin over the Desert Southwest and a positively tilted longwave
trough swings into the Mid-Atlantic. Light and variable winds
through much of the day today as a surface high builds southward
into Texas. Sunny skies will finally make an appearance, but the
cool air mass from the frontal passage yesterday will remain in
place with below normal temperatures in the lower 60s. Any moisture
will remain to the west and south with no precipitation anticipated
for the forecast area. Southerly surface winds will return overnight
tonight as the ridge builds into eastern Texas. Near normal
temperatures are expected tonight in the 30s with chilly near
freezing temperatures across the far southwest Texas Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The rex blocking pattern will begin to breakdown early this week and
release the upper level low eastward. Temperatures will warm into
the 60s and 70s tomorrow with weak upper level flow, brief shortwave
ridging aloft, and southwest surface winds. Rain and thunderstorm
chances will return to the forecast area on Wednesday as the upper
level low finally moves eastward into New Mexico and large scale
forcing for ascent increases across West Texas. Lee surface
troughing will lead to a dryline sharpening somewhere in the
forecast area on Wednesday with strong to severe convection possible
along and east of the boundary. Morning precipitation could
complicate the setup with clouds and cooler temperatures as medium
to long range guidance is showing potential for early day showers or
storms. Long range guidance indicates moderate instability along and
east of the dryline but questions remain regarding deep layer shear
and potential for organized convection and where/when storms will
initiate in the forecast area. NBM PoPs have been lowered slightly
on Wednesday but have been maintained for the most part due to long
range guidance in decent agreement of thunderstorm development
during the day. Rain and thunderstorms chances are possible again on
Thursday but are expected to be limited to the eastern Rolling
Plains and far southeast Texas Panhandle as the upper level trough
exits the region eastward. Temperatures are currently forecast to
continue to remain in the 70s through the weekend with mostly zonal
flow aloft. Some more thunderstorm activity is possible forming
along the higher terrain to our north on Saturday but long range
models are showing currently showing too small potential for any
mentionable PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites through the
period. Light and variable winds will veer to the south tonight.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...11


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