Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 031710
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BARELY EAST OF THE
AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD. PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 50 MILES WEST OF
KPVW. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND GIVING WE ARE STILL IN LATE SUMMER...THIS PRETTY MUCH SPELLS
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  590DAM HIGH
EXISTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES.  LOW IS NOW ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WE HAVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN.  INFLUENCE ON MONSOONAL FETCH
APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING /ABOUT 20-30 MI/
AND GIVEN INDICATIONS IN THIS MORNING/S FCST SOUNDING DATA...IT
WOULD APPEAR SOME MENTION OF POPS UP PARMER COUNTY WAY ARE
WARRANTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE SW TO NE ORIENTED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
JUST A BIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO A NW
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS SUCH...THIS COULD ALLOW THE FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE /AND ADDED PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IN THE ERN PACIFIC/ TO IMPINGE ON THE
FAR WRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...AND ARE ALSO SHOWING THE
MOISTURE PLUM TO THIN WITH TIME. IT IS NO WONDER THAT THE MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THOUGH THE NAM IS RATHER BULLISH AND
STICKING TO ITS GUNS FOR CI ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A
SFC TROUGH AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS DEFINITELY
PLAUSIBLE AND CAN NOT BE IGNORED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NWRN ZONES ON SATURDAY. BY LATE
WEEKEND...THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED BACK ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILST DE-
AMPLIFYING A BIT...THANKS TO THE NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ENE TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. EMBEDDED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...WHILE
CONCURRENTLY A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
COULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT A STRONGER FRONT BEING ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY/FRIDAY PROMOTING YET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. THIS IS
ALL ASSUMING THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL IN FACT PUSH SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND MAKE WAY FOR THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES.

ASIDE FOR POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER /WHICH COULD CAUSE HIGHS TO FALL INTO THE 80S AND
90S/...HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  88 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         63  90  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  90  64  90 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  91  63  89 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   64  90  64  89 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  90 /   0  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          67  94  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     70  95  70  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05



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