Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 121712
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1112 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS BY 09-11Z LOOK TO ALLOW LOW STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL THREE TERMINALS AS A RESULT FROM MOIST
UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. THE EXTENT OF HOW LOW CIGS OR VIS WILL GO
IS STILL IN QUESTION AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA. CIGS WILL BE
KEPT AT BKN015 FOR THE TIME BEING AND WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED
IN FUTURE TAF CYCLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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