Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241116
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
516 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM WEST TEXAS. NORTHWEST WINDS AOA 12 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BACK
TO WEST THIS AFTN THEN SOUTH TO SW THIS EVENING...DECREASING IN
SPEED WITH TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER FLOW TO BACK FROM NORTH TO WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SFC
FLOW DOING THE SAME BUT ABOUT TWELVE HOURS FASTER. COOL AIR TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT FCST HIGH TEMPS A BIT OF A
BALANCING ACT. WILL SEE FAIRLY SHARP THICKNESS INCREASES COMPARED TO
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...INCREASED
INSOLATION...AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ON THE CAPROCK BY MID
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE COLDER START TO THE DAY
AND NEARLY NEUTRAL 24-HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT 850 MB. RESULT
SHOULD BE HIGHS NEAR THOSE OF YESTERDAY OFF THE CAPROCK BUT ABOUT
FOUR TO NINE DEGREES WARMER ON THE CAPROCK. FOR BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT MOS TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LOOK REASONABLE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN. 00Z
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL EXERT MORE
PRESENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS FOR THE START OF THE FINAL
WEEK OF 2014...PERHAPS LINGERING THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY. BEFORE
THIS COLD SURGE ARRIVES...WE/RE LEFT SIFTING THROUGH THE DETAILS
OF POSITIVE-TILT TROUGHINESS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND. MILD AND BREEZY SWLY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRI. DID NUDGE MAX
TEMPS UP ON FRI AS THIS FROPA HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT DAYS.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WX AS AN UPPER
TROUGH /STILL OFFSHORE OF NRN CALIFORNIA ATTM/ SHARPENS AND CLOSES
OFF IN THE FOUR CORNERS. PHASING DETAILS OF THIS WAVE WITH
STRONGER NRN STREAM ENERGY ARE AT LEAST PARTIALLY TO BLAME FOR
THE DISPARITY OF QPF AMONG MODELS /GFS EJECTS ENERGY THE FASTEST/
..BUT THE PATTERN ALONE SUGGESTS A WINDOW FOR TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
TO INTERACT WITH ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONT PROGGED TO
LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT. KEPT POPS JUST BELOW CHANCE
LEVELS AS THE DEGREE OF TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS STILL A HUGE WILD
CARD 2.5 DAYS OUT. THE NAM AND ECM ARE LEADING THE QPF PACK VERSUS
THE BONE-DRY GFS AND CMC. THERMAL PROFILES ARE SHAPING UP TRICKY
WITH ALL PRECIP PHASES POSSIBLE INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...BUT
WE/VE KEPT WX GRIDS SIMPLIFIED FOR NOW WITH JUST RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
A STUBBORN WARM NOSE ATOP THE FRONTAL INVERSION COULD GARNER A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWCASED IN WPC/S WWD...BUT THESE
FACTORS ARE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT THIS FAR OUT UNTIL BETTER
MODEL RUN CONTINUITY EMERGES /FINGERS CROSSED/.

GFS AND ECM DO LINGER SOME TROUGH ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH SHOWN TO DIG INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA BY SAT...BUT THE BRUNT OF
THE LIFT LOCALLY LOOKS TO BE OVER WITH BY THIS TIME AS THE MAIN
PVA AND DEEPER SATURATION SHIFT DOWNSTREAM. A BRIEF ROUND OF
MILDER TEMPS ON SUN UNDER ZONAL FLOW STILL LOOKS TO CRUMBLE APART
SOMETIME MON OR TUE AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH MUCH OF
WEST TX. WITH OUR REGION PROGGED TO SIT UNDER WSW FLOW DOWNSTREAM
OF AN ELONGATING TROUGH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING MAY ONCE AGAIN UNFOLD AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF STEADY FN
FORCING ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL LAYER FOR WINTRY PRECIP. STILL
TOO EARLY AND UNCERTAIN TO PAINT POPS IN THE GRIDS...BUT PATTERN
RECOGNITION OF THESE ARCTIC FROPAS UNDER SWLY FLOW MAY EVENTUALLY
WARRANT AT LEAST A FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  26  60  30  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         47  25  62  34  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     47  26  62  35  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     48  27  62  35  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       48  28  63  36  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   48  27  63  35  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    48  26  63  35  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     51  27  64  39  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          50  27  63  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     51  29  64  39  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07




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