Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KLUB 290445
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK SO WE HAVE
KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE KLBB TAF FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE DIURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS FIELD PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS DEVELOPED AS THE
PAST FEW DAYS. S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER 00 UTC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
LOW PROBABILITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB...AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION FOR LIGHT FOG...BUT LARGE VSBY
REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. S-SE WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MORNING UA CHARTS DEPICTED A 563 DECAMETER LOW OVER NEVADA WITH
MERIDIONAL RIDGING FROM WEST TX NORTH TO THE DAKOTAS. WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS THIS CYCLONE/S VORTICITY FIELD HAS BEEN IN A FAIRLY
BALANCED STATE OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS...HENCE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT AS PVA
FOCUSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW AND ACTS TO MOBILIZE THE CYCLONE
CENTER EASTWARD. EVEN AS THIS NEGATIVE TILT LOW LIFTS INTO WYOMING
BY MON NIGHT...THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN GRAZING THE WRN TX
PANHANDLE AS SOON AS MON AFTN. THESE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS UNDERNEATH A
CLASSIC KISSING UPPER JET SIGNATURE SUGGEST BACKGROUND ASCENT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION AMIDST MODEST CAPPING. INITIATION
WILL LIKELY UNFOLD IN NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID AFTN ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE...BUT COVERAGE OF TSTORMS SHOULD TRAIL OFF
MARKEDLY FARTHER SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET CORE AND HEIGHT FALLS
FAVORING THE WRN TX PANHANDLE NORTH TO ERN COLORADO. DID ADD SEVERE
MENTION IN PARMER COUNTY FOR THE LATE AFTN AS THESE SETUPS OF
LOW-TO-MODERATE CAPE WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 BULK SHEAR CAN OFTEN
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES. BEST POP CHANCES STILL FAVOR THE
POST-AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME /DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION/
COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG BY MON MORNING APPEARS TO BE IN THE
CARDS FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE RECENT HISTORY HAS PROVEN MOST
FAVORABLE. MUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO THE MAX 2-INCH SOIL MOISTURE
VALUES RESIDING IN THIS REGION AS SAMPLED BY WEST TX MESONETS. ADD
TO THIS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE
STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. SIDED WITH MILDER MOS
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON MONDAY EAST OF THE LL
THERMAL RIDGE WELL TO OUR WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

LONG TERM...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHWEST
TUESDAY EVENING.  MAINSTREAM NWP IS REALLY ANEMIC WHEN IT COMES TO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA BUT SOME OF THE FINER RESOLUTION MODELS
NMM4KM...TTUWRF CONTINUE A MORE EXPECTED SCENARIO WITH STORMS MAKING
INTO OUR NWRN ZONES AFTER 00Z.  GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE
SYSTEM...CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SCENARIO OUTLINED IN THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL LEAVE INHERITED 30
POPS AS-IS THOUGH WILL RESTORE MENTION OF SVR FOR CHC REGION.
QUESTIONS ARISE FOR JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL LEAVE SLGT CHC MENTION NORTH GOING GIVEN THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF SOLUTIONS.  INTO TUESDAY...PAC FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE LOOKS TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION EAST OF THE INTERSTATE.  SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE ACTIVITY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THOUGH WILL NOT EXPLICITLY
MENTION THAT IN THE GRIDS ATTM.  ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND MAYBE HANG AROUND THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE.  THE LATEST
ECMWF...WHICH INCIDENTALLY IS STATISTICALLY THE WORST AT TEMP
FORECASTS OUT HERE WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING POST-FRONTAL TEMPS...IS
NOTABLY COOLER THAN THE PLURALITY OF OTHER GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THAT
KERNEL WILL UNDERCUT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FROM THU UNTIL SATURDAY.  IT
SHOULD ACTUALLY BE A BEAUTIFUL FIRST WEEKEND IN OCTOBER IN THESE
PARTS.  MIGHT BE A GOOD TIME FOR AN OKTOBERFEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  78  56  81  53 /   0  20  30  10   0
TULIA         56  79  58  82  56 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     58  78  60  83  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     57  79  60  84  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       59  79  62  83  60 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   57  79  61  85  58 /   0   0  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    57  79  61  85  59 /   0   0  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  86  64  87  64 /   0   0  20  20  30
SPUR          60  83  62  86  62 /   0   0  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     63  87  65  89  66 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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