Area Forecast Discussion
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185
FXUS64 KLUB 250933
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
433 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Our pestering strong upper level low will finally leave our airspace
today giving way to a pleasant late March day. Short wave ridging
will move overhead in advance of the next short wave trough within
the progressive flow aloft. This will cause the upper level winds to
back to the southwest tonight. High level clouds out ahead of this
short wave will begin to advect into the region on early Sunday
morning. For today, surface winds off the caprock will quickly
increase after day break. Mixing of the lower atmosphere will allow
still strong 850mb winds to quickly mix down to the surface during
the morning hours. However, winds will slacken off during the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...
The next upper level short wave trough, currently crossing the
southern California coastline, will move across the Front Range
into southwest Kansas late Sunday where modest tightening is
expected. Wind maximums will be spreading once again across the
Texas South Plains Sunday afternoon - strongest winds this time
appear should favor the southern half of our area - and wind
speeds look fairly solid in the low-end windy category. Wind
Advisory levels may be within reach, but our lean is still just
slightly less. Low level moisture return will be shunted east of
the area, perhaps a brief shallow intrusion in our southeast
counties early Sunday before veering flow dries once more.

This wave will pass east Sunday evening with a modest cold front
sweeping southward through the area. Upper level flow will gain
anticyclonic curvature and an upper ridge axis will be overhead
Monday. Monday still appears to be a very nice day with low level
flow returning to southeasterly as surface low pressure begins
falling over eastern New Mexico. Winds may become modestly breezy
by Monday evening.

Next up will be a digging/deepening upper level low pressure
system into the southern plateau Tuesday with backing flow across
the southern high plains. Moisture levels are expected to improve
with increasing cloud cover and tightening low level convergence
with a dry-line probably near the New Mexico border by midday
Tuesday. Height falls spreading in late Tuesday expected to weaken
the cap and lead to scattered thunderstorms. Modest convectively
available potential energy levels combined with at least initially
twisting low level Hodographs and favorable Bulk Shear levels
suggest at least some risk for supercell development and will
obviously need additional consideration. Rain chances will
improve Tuesday night and Wednesday with arrival of next cold
front, limiting surface instability though some mid level
steepness of lapse rate may continue until deeper saturation
occurs. We have retained solid chances for thunder coverage
Tuesday and Wednesday. The ultimate path of the upper low across
the area remains a bit uncertain with current spread ranging from
the southern South Plains into the southern Panhandle.
Precipitation confidence remains slightly reduced as a result.

Upper low will pull east Thursday, with increasing spread in the
upper low path and some uncertainty therefore with degree of
backside cooling and temperatures Thursday. But upper ridging
should follow by Friday with warmer conditions in advance of the
next impressive looking upper low expected to dig into the
southern plateau and perhaps northern Mexico next weekend. A large
path spread and run-to-run inconsistencies factor into a lot of
uncertainty for our area next weekend. RMcQueen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday afternoon as
deep mixing occurs south of an upper level low pressure trough
moving across the Front Range into southwest Kansas. Wind maximums
will favor the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains.
A cold front will enter the area during the evening, but a warm
and dry environment will spread across the area in advance. We
are issuing a Fire Weather Watch favoring the southern half of the
area on the Caprock, but have buffered the watch a little north
and east due to uncertainty. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

01/05



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