000
FXUS64 KLUB 230540
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1240 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The interesting forcing for the forecast area today and tonight will
be at the surface/low levels rather than aloft. Mid/upper level
zonal flow will be overhead with no meaningful ripples. Meanwhile,
lee troughing across eastern New Mexico will connect with a surface
cyclone across eastern Colorado. That trough will keep south to
southwest winds in place with speeds mostly remaining in a range
from 10-20 mph which in turn will help keep temperatures on the mild
side. NBM looks to a bit high with tonight`s lows given the above
reasoning, and MOS`s warmer numbers are preferred at this time. The
surface cyclone to our north will spread eastward late tonight with
a slight veering of the surface flow across the forecast area. This
will be followed by a move of the low to the south and the southward
movement of a cold front extending northeastward from the low. That
front should move into the northeastern quadrant of the forecast
area mid to late afternoon. Timing and southern extent of its
movement will be key to the forecast relative to high temperatures
and thunderstorm chances. Pre-frontal compressional warming is
likely in this scenario with the warmer NBM favored over MOS this
time around. Regarding thunder chances, this front will be moving
into a conditionally unstable air mass with progged MLCAPE values of
1500-2000 J/kg but MLCIN values up to around 50 J/kg pointing to the
presence of a cap that could that could very well hold. However,
models (particularly hi-res) have been consistent with isolated
convective initiation toward 21-23Z along the front in the vicinity
of a Floydada to Paducah line followed by a southeastward movement
into the axis of low level instability. A slight chance mention with
a conditional severe risk continues to look good as the combo of
expected instability and shear appear sufficient for supercell
development given a long enough lifespan to the initial or secondary
updraft cycles.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Models continue to be in a disagreement with the cold front for
Wednesday and whether it will linger through the day (GFS/NAM) or
dissipate (ECMWF). While both the GFS and NAM allow the front to
persist Wednesday, the NAM keeps temps the coolest across the FA by
at least 10 degrees thanks to status and widespread showers behind
the front. This would certainly hinder any severe potential for
Wednesday afternoon/evening. The severe potential appears to be
waining for Thursday as well, at least for the Lubbock FA. The
dryline should set up just east of the I27 corridor by early
afternoon before quickly pushing eastward. Models show the chance
for isolated storms along the dryline, but the main upper level
support from the upper trough will still be well to our west. This
lift is currently progged to move over the FA by Friday morning. By
this point the dryline will be near the eastern border of the FA
where storms are expected to develop. Storms, and the associated
severe potential, will push quickly east and clear the FA just
before noon. A second upper trough, over the Four Corners by
Saturday morning, will bring another potential for severe
convection. This next round of convection would likely be confined
to our far eastern zones as well due to a stronger dryline pushing
through the region. Most of the FA will likely experience dry and
breezy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period.
Winds about 800 ft AGL remain around 45 kts this morning so with
surface winds diminishing this will lead to LLWS at all three
sites through around sunrise. A cold front will sweep south
through the area late this morning and through the afternoon which
will switch southerly winds around to the north and then the east
as we go through the period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...58