000
FXUS64 KLUB 111906
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
206 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Current water vapor imagery shows the upper level trough tracking
through the mid-Atlantic and Ohio River valley this afternoon. As
this continues to lift northeastward, northwest flow aloft will
begin to flatten as an upper level ridge tracks in from the west.
This will allow our relatively quiet and pleasant weather to
continue through the short-term period.

A mild night is expected for the region with overnight lows dipping
into the 40s under clear skies and light winds. Southerly surface
winds are expected to increase as a LLJ kicks in early tomorrow
morning and veer out of the southwest as surface troughing develops
in the lee of the Rockies. Expect southwest winds around 15 to 20
mph with gusts up to 25 mph. These breezy southwest winds will help
boost high temperatures tomorrow into the low to mid 80s across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Long term forecast continues to focus on our next weather system for
Monday which will bring us a chance for severe thunderstorms and
strong winds. Prior to Monday though, upper-level ridging will
remain over the forecast area. This will keep our weather quiet with
temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees above average for mid April with
high temperatures mostly in the 80s to lower 90s through early next
week. Lee surface troughing will also remain in place across eastern
New Mexico through the weekend which will keep our winds breezy each
afternoon out of the southwest. As mentioned above our upper-level
pattern will change on Monday as an upper-level low moves over the
Four Corners and approaches our area. Latest ensemble guidance
continues to show a slightly weaker and more northerly track with
this wave which leads to increasing concerns for strong
southwesterly winds on Monday. Latest guidance is in fairly good
agreement with a 50-55kt jet at 700 mb which would lead to surface
wind gusts in excess of 60 mph especially for locations on the
Caprock. These strong winds would also lead to areas of blowing dust
during the afternoon. The other concern is how far west the dryline
will set up as a Pacific front races eastward. Based on the past few
events we have had this season still believe that at least a slight
chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible for the
Rolling Plains and far southeast Texas Panhandle. Tuesday will be
slightly cooler thanks to the front but high temperatures are still
expected to remain about 5 degrees above average. Confidence in the
upper-level pattern diminishes by the middle of next week as another
trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

LLWS may develop early tomorrow morning at KLBB and KPVW
terminals diminishing just after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...12