000
FXUS64 KLUB 121913
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
213 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The weather conditions over the next 24 hours or so will be
dominated by a more spring like type pattern for West Texas. An
upper level ridge will encompass much of the center of the CONUS.
However, a weak short wave trough will be under-cutting the upper
ridge. This short wave will be moving out of the 4-corners region
into the Central Plains. A broad surface low will undergo slight
deepening across the Dakotas with a trailing surface trough/dryline
through the Southern Plains. A weak dryline will mix eastward
through the day making its way off the caprock by late afternoon.
Very deep boundary layer mixing will be present west of the dryline
to heights around 650mb or so. Winds below this level will be at
their highest early in the morning and will be decreasing through
the day. So, it appears as though surface winds may not get too out
of hand on Saturday afternoon. Downsloping winds will also lead to
much warmer temperatures with widespread values in the 80s and
possibly lower 90s off the Caprock.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A persistent upper level ridge will bring mostly sunny skies and
warm temperatures through the weekend, with highs by Sunday
expected in the low 90s off the Caprock. The pattern will change
on Monday as a broad upper low approaches from the west. This will
lead to a threat of potential severe weather and strong winds
across the area. Models/ensembles continue to show an eastward
trend with the dryline. Where exactly it develops will help
determine more specifically the location of thunderstorms, with
storms occurring east of the dryline and stronger winds to the
west of it. Forcing parameters are reasonably favorable off the
Caprock, with a ~40-50kt low-level jet passing through in the
afternoon. Model SBCAPE is currently around 1500-2000 J/kg with
plentiful morning sunshine providing sufficient instability.
Highest winds are expected on the Caprock, potentially gusting up
to 50 mph out of the southwest. This will subsequently bring
elevated fire weather concerns as well. This system will move out
by Tuesday and a more zonal flow pattern will bring mostly clear
skies and warmer temperatures through next Thursday before a cold
front looks to move through by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Surface winds will be
breezy for the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. Strong
winds just off the deck will manifest again late this evening at
all TAF sites creating LLWS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...01