Area Forecast Discussion
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597
FXUS64 KLUB 221710
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1110 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.AVIATION...
Winds will be slow to relax this afternoon remaining breezy out of
the northwest at all TAF sites. However, sunset will cue to onset
of a rapid settling of the winds to the light and variable variety
overnight. VFR to prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 538 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

AVIATION...
MVFR cigs that have been occasionally affecting the terminals
early this morning will yield to VFR over the next hour or so with
VFR to prevail thereafter. Otherwise, breezy northwesterly
(sustained at 15-20 knots) will continue through the day before
become light and somewhat variable tonight.

UPDATE...
Winds have gradually edged downward through the early morning
hours with most locations now below advisory levels. Given these
trends we will allow the wind advisory to expire on schedule at 6
am. Even so, winds will remain breezy through the day before
finally dropping off more significantly toward dusk.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

SHORT TERM...
The storm system that brought all of the wind yesterday into early
this morning was making quick headway eastward into southwest
Oklahoma as of 08Z. Clouds and even scattered light rain showers
were spilling southward over the Panhandles into the Rolling Plains
and northeast South Plains behind the deepening upper low. Both the
clouds and rain showers will be short-lived locally as the upper low
races eastward. The center of the upper low will be passing over the
Arklatex already by 12Z and into Alabama by 00Z. Dry sinking
northwest flow will quickly replace the influences of the upper low.
Any light showers should exit the northeastern zones by 12Z, with
the low-mid clouds not far behind.

The strong northwesterly winds (sustained at 25 to 35 mph with gusts
to 40 to 45 mph) common over much of the CWA early this morning will
edge downward toward morning. It still appears winds will generally
be below advisory levels by 12Z, so will will maintain the wind
advisory as is, concluding at 12Z. Even so, breezy northwesterly
winds (sustained at 15 to 20 knots) will persist through much of the
day. The winds will finally drop off more significantly by early
this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Near full insolation and the downsloping winds will secure another
day of above average temperatures with highs ranging from the middle
50s across the southwest Texas Panhandle to the lower and middle 60s
in the Rolling Plains. Much lighter winds tonight coupled with only
a few passing high clouds and relatively dry air in place will allow
temperatures to fall efficiently, with lows in the lower and middle
30s expected to be common.

LONG TERM...
Strong winds remain on track for Tuesday.

The latest model guidance is very consistent with the ongoing
forecast for our forecast area. We`ll see warmer temperatures
Monday as southwesterly flow strengthens downstream of a large
trough moving through the western states. Highs will be in the
middle 60s to middle 70s. Southwest breezes will pick up across
the Caprock Monday afternoon - a harbinger of what`s to come on
Tuesday. A strong upper-level jet will emerge over the southern
plains Tuesday with our area on the favored southern flank where a
tight mid-level height gradient will drive a 50-70 kt speed max at
700 mb. The dry airmass will mix deeply and should be able to tap
into this energy fairly early in the day. In fact, the speed max
may pass early enough to spare the forecast area the worst winds,
but it still appears there is a high probability of advisory level
winds for most if not all the forecast area and at least a small
threat of high winds across our northern counties. Some blowing
dust will be possible as well. Highs on Tuesday will fall back
into the 50s and 60s as a Pacific-type front moves across the
area.

A broad trough will ease across the area on Wednesday, allowing a
cold front to drop into the area - although the latest trends have
backed off the southward push of the front. A stronger front will
follow on Friday as the trailing portion of a highly tilted upper
trough dives southward through the plains. Temperatures are
expected to remain on the cool side of average Wednesday through
Saturday, with highs mainly in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
Chance of precipitation in this pattern looks minuscule.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/74



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