Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 250802
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
202 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM ALBERTA TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THOSE
DEEPENING PRESSURES WILL THEN HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
15-30 MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SWRN PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS.
BREEZY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR
FROM YESTERDAY. THICKNESSES INCREASE SOME TODAY...BUT MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE. ALSO MUST NOTE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY WESTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. THUS SHOULD SEE A WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY NORTHWEST
WITH POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. PREVIOUS FCST AND MOS GUIDANCE LOOK GREAT WITH ONLY VERY
SLIGHT MODIFICATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKIER WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEST
WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED SOME OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THEM
DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. WILL TEND TO
FAVOR WARMER GFS-BASED MOS NUMBERS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RELATIVELY QUIET
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONSIST OF AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS ERN PACIFIC...UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND THUS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...OUR AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE PACIFIC VERSUS ARCTIC ORIGINS ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UA DISTURBANCE DIVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THUS BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT
DAMPEN TEMPS MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS
WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE BY THANKSGIVING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
COURTESY OF RISING HEIGHT FIELDS AND SFC LEE TROUGHING. WILL
THEREFORE SEE SLIGHTLY BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS DURING THE AFTN AND
AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND IN THE 60S
AND 70S BY THE WEEKEND /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A BIT
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND/. CONCURRENTLY...WITH UA DISTURBANCES
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER...FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEREBY BACK TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FLOW ALOFT BACKING FURTHER TO THE SW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS
TO A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS
WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW...COULD PROMOTE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HENCE COOLER TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. BEING THIS IS
DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO...THINGS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE
BY THEN. HOWEVER...10-12 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
/WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ ON TUESDAY APPEARS APPROPRIATE
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  28  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  29  61  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  30  62  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  31  63  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  31  63  34  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  32  65  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  32  64  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  33  63  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  33  64  35  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  34  65  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29




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