Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 051051
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
451 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING TO SW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A MUCH QUIETER DAY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY AS THE STORM THAT
BROUGHT THE WINTER MENAGERIE YESTERDAY HAS...EXCEPT FOR ONE LAST BIT
OF ENERGY THAT HAS SPREAD SOME FLURRIES WEST OF LUBBOCK...EXITED THE
REGION. DRIER NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SFC WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL OFFER SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
IN PART BECAUSE OF THE BIT OF SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND AND MOIST
SOIL UNDERNEATH...BUT WILL NOTE THAT BEFORE THE PATTERN CHANGE A
WEEK AGO TEMPS WERE FAVORING THE WARMER END OF THE SPECTRUM. A
LITTLE MILDER OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AND MODIFICATION
OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MASS.

LONG TERM...
ALL IS QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
REGION WILL BE DOMINATED MAINLY BY DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
SERIES OF LEE TROFS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL TROFS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WILL HELP KEEP SURFACE
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS STEADILY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE. THESE
UPPER LEVEL TROFS WILL ORIGINATE FROM NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST AND
WILL ONLY HAVE DRY AIR TO TAP INTO WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP AT BAY.
THE NEXT SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT MAY COME LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS PUSHES ANOTHER STOUT ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS AND INSTEAD DEVELOPS A DEEP CLOSED LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN CALI THAT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...WELL
BEYOND OUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...AT LEAST
THE PAST 2 EVENINGS...IN PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE REGION NEXT
THURSDAY. THE FORECAST IS LEANING TOWARDS A FROPA THURSDAY BUT WILL
NOT GET TOO CUTE WITH THE DETAILS AS CHANGES IN MODELS ARE HIGHLY
PROBABLE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  19  53  25 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         36  20  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  21  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     36  20  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  21  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   36  23  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    36  22  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     38  23  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          36  22  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     37  21  52  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51/07



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