Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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992
FXUS61 KLWX 251351 AAB
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
951 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will build south of the region into the
weekend. Low pressure may affect the region late in the weekend
and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ridge of high pressure sfc and aloft will hold off for another 24
hrs keeping area warm and dry. Temperatures today will be warmer
in the mid to upper 80s. Some remnant showers from KY convection
could make into the Appalachian region tonight. POPs 20% or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure offshore Thursday will maintain light southerly flow
and increasing moisture with dewpoints reaching the mid 60s.
Diurnally driven thunderstorms expected first in terrain with
chances near the Bay from breeze boundaries. It may take awhile for
activity to develop on the Piedmont. Likely PoPs for the complex
terrain with chances east given expected popup activity. The warming
trend may level off Thursday with increased clouds and moisture
despite the sly flow.

Increasing moisture trend continues Friday with a Bermuda High.
Expect 70F dewpoints and more scattered convective thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summer is almost here..and it becomes more difficult to find
noticeable features in the models as temperature/pressure
gradients become weaker. Saturday looks warm as a sub-tropical
ridge influences the Mid Atlantic: highs in the mid 80s are
expected. Perhaps isolated thunderstorms could develop over the
mountains in the afternoon/early evening.

Upper level moisture from a developing disturbance off the SC
coast could bring increased clouds into the region Sunday. Highs
in the lower 80s. Again a chance of afternoon/evening
showers/thuderstorms.

The moisture flow is expected to continue during Memorial
Day/Tuesday. Still - by no means is the holiday looking to be a
washout. Scattered showers/storms will be possible with
considerable cloud cover. Super Blend has high temps in the mid
70s while GFS keeps them in the low 80s. This will be somewhat
dependent on cloud cover. The same is true for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through tonight under high pressure today.
Light sly flow and diurnal thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. ifr
conds expected in heaviest activity.

VFR conditions expected to continue Saturday. Main problem Sunday
is the potential for afternoon showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Light westerly flow becomes southerly this afternoon and persists
through Friday as high pressure over the area this morning shifts
east to Bermuda by Friday.

No problems foreseen on the waters Saturday or Sunday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...LFR/ABW
MARINE...LFR/ABW



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