Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 271949
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
249 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSE SFC COASTAL LOW IS NOW OVER 500 MILES TO
THE NE OF OUR AREA...THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXTENDS
BACK TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THIS EDGE REMAINS
A RELATIVELY LONG/NARROW BUT WEAK CORRIDOR OF LIFT...PIVOTING AND
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS REGION OF LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP BATCHES OF
FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...NAMELY THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE - UP TO THE NRN SHEN VLY. THIS
FEATURE IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR AREA...W/ CLOUDS SHOWING
A FAIRLY STEADY BREAK-UP ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TROUBLE INCREASING TODAY...BETWEEN THE
DENSE SUN-BLOCKING LOW STRATUS AND THE DRY/GUSTY NW WINDS. A FEW
LOCALES AROUND THE AREA HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK BUT W/ A NW WIND IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE...WIND CHILLS HAVE
STAYED WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THIS THEME WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER.
AMBIENT TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE SLIDING WELL INTO THE TEENS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ADD TO THAT...WINDS GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE
LATE TONIGHT - WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF FLURRIES CONTINUES TO CENTER ITSELF OVER THE NRN
VA BLUE RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z. WINDS
HOWEVER WILL NOT DISSIPATE IN THE COMING HRS...POTENTIALLY
REACHING A RELATIVE PEAK LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. STILL BREEZY OUT OF THE NW ON WED BUT CLEAR.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATER TODAY...STAYING THE COURSE
WELL INTO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED
AS WELL.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/LEE
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...GMS/HAS/LEE
MARINE...GMS/HAS/LEE






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