Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 281346
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
946 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE
CENTER CURRENTLY PLACED OVER PA NUDGING EASTWARD LATE IN THE DAY.
FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK WITH QUIET WX EXPECTED TODAY AND ONLY A
FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS. TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...GENERALLY IN
THE 80S.

GIVEN SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON LWX AND RNK 12Z SOUNDINGS WHICH DOES
NOT APPEAR TO ERODE MUCH DURING THE DAY...AM DOUBTING WE SEE MUCH
IF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER DRY NIGHT...WITH PSBL PATCHY FOG UNDER CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND INCRSG LOW LVL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL INCH UP
COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH DEW POINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH INCRSG
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WHILE MOST OF THE
CWA...ESP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DRY SAT AND SUN
AFTN...DO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISO SHOWER OR TSTM BOTH AFTNS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV. THERE REMAINS
SOME QUESTION ON HOW DEEP THE MID LVL TROUGH SETS UP SAT...AND
THEREFORE HOW FAR SOUTH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH CAN
EXTEND. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC FOR
SAT...AND CHC FOR SUN...DURING THE AFTNS. INCRSG MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG SAT NIGHT
IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND VALLEYS OF THE PIEDMONT.

WILL SEE A RETURN TO WAA WITH THE SW-SLY FLOW...RESULTING IN WARMING
TEMPS. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL FOR BOTH DAYS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS MID-LVL HGTS RISE NEXT WEEK...REPLACING THE GRTLKS TROF W/ A ERN
CONUS RDG...XPCT A PTTN CHG ACRS THE MID ATLC. FCST WL BE FOR A
HOTTER STRETCH...W/ TEMPS SLGTLY ABV NRML-- MAXT UPR 80S TO NEAR
90F. HUMIDITY LVLS WL BE ON THE RISE TOO...BUT DEWPTS LOOK STICKY
BUT NOT INTOLERABLE-- LWR-MID 60S. MIN-T FCST TAKES ITS CUE FM THESE
PROGGED DEWPTS.

CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IN MEAGER INSTBY ANTICIPATED GIVEN
THE WARMER/MORE HUMID AMS. MTNS WUD BE PREFERRED AS THE TRRN WL
PROVIDE AN ADDED SOURCE OF LIFT. THIS THREAT INCREASES DAILY...ALTHO
AT NO POINT IS IT ALL THAT GREAT. WL SHOW A PROGRESSION FM 20-30
POPS SW OF A CBE-EZF LINE MON PM TO 20-30 POPS AREAWIDE BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. PSBL MVFR VIS AT KCHO
AND KMRB EACH NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. ANY CONVECTION EACH AFTN
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS THRU THE DAY WILL
BECOME SLY SAT-SUN...THOUGH STILL LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTSIDE OF LCL PREDAWN FOG...VFR CONDS XPCTD UNDER HIPRES THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUN NIGHT. PSBL BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO
20 KTS WITH SLY CHANNELING SUN EVENING.

WNDS WL BE LGT UNDER HIPRES...AND SHUD EXHIBIT AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
DURING THE AFTN HRS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/ADS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS


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