Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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395 FXUS61 KLWX 012133 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 433 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will pass through the area early tonight. A weak area of low pressure will move across the area early Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A wind advisory has been issued for much of the outlook area tonight through Thrusday morning. A cold front will cross the region this evening and a pressure surge is expected behind it. NW winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 50-55 mph are expected late tonight into Thursday morning. Slightly weaker winds are expected across the Central Foothills and portions of the Piedmont. The cold front is currently across eastern Ohio...showers are expected when the cold front crosses tonight. Previous discussion... Upslope snow showers will pick up over the Potomac highlands with an inch or less of accumulation. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Additional shortwave energy will move across the area late Thu night and Fri morning with a weak area of low pressure moving across the area Fri morning. This will help trigger snow showers across the area with minor snow accumulations expected mainly northwest of the Blue Ridge mtns. It will also be windy Fri with wind advisory conditions possible over parts of the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Fairly quiet in the long term with high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and high temperatures in the 40s -colder at higher elevations-, with dry conditions continuing into Sunday. High pressure moves offshore on Sunday and winds become southerly, allowing for high temperatures to rise into the 50s for most areas. Dry conditions continue into Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures in the 60s. Cold front approaches Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, increasing PoPs over the region. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Another round of showers expected tonight with little threat for lightning or severe wx. VFR conditions expected Saturday into Monday with high pressure bringing dry conditions into the region. && .MARINE... Gale conditions expected through mid morning Thu. Wind diminish Thu afternoon and night and strengthen again on Fri. Gale conditions appear likely on Fri into Fri evening. && .CLIMATE... Here is a list of record daily warm temperatures for March 1st (Wednesday). Site Record High Record Warm Low DCA 80 (1976) 57 (1910) BWI 80 (1972) 53 (1910) IAD 77 (1972) 43 (1997/1987/1976) Here are updated February and Winter records. It appears that this will go down as the warmest February on record at all three major airports. Warmest Februaries (average temperature) DCA BWI IAD 1. 47.7 (2017) 44.2 (2017) 44.8 (2017) 2. 46.9 (1976)* 44.0 (1976)* 42.1 (1990) 3. 45.2 (1990) 43.9 (1949) 41.1 (1976)* 4. 44.7 (1997) 43.3 (1890) 41.0 (1998) 5. 44.3 (2012)* 42.7 (1932) 40.9 (2012)* 6. 43.9 (1949) 42.6 (1909) 40.5 (1997) *Leap year Overall winter Washington had the third warmest winter on record, Baltimore will have a top 10 warmest winter. This is the warmest winter on record for Dulles. Warmest Winters (Dec 1-Feb 28/29) DCA BWI IAD 1. 44.7 (1931-32) 45.3 (1931-32) 40.0 (2011-12) 2. 44.3 (1889-90) 44.4 (1889-90) 39.7 (2001-02) 3. 43.3 (2011-12) 42.4 (1948-49) 39.4 (1997-98) 4. 43.2 (2001-02) 41.9 (1949-50) 39.0 (2015-16) 5. 42.8 (1949-50) 41.3 (1879-80) 38.3 (1990-91) Winter 2016-17 (through the 28th) DCA: 43.9 BWI: 40.5 IAD: 40.7 && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for DCZ001. MD...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for MDZ003-501-502. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508. VA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for VAZ040-052>054-501-505-506. WV...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday for WVZ050>053-055-501>506. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...HSK/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...IMR/LFR MARINE...IMR/LFR CLIMATE...lwx

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