Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 180759 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 359 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 07Z...1042MB SFC HIGH IS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH DOWN I-95 INTO THE CAROLINAS. ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LWX CWA WITH OCEANIC LOW CLOUD DECK OVER THE ERN PART OF THE CWA...ROUGHLY ALONG I-95. HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW. STORY OF THE DAY IS THE LOW CLOUD COVER FROM THE EAST AND THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL FILTER SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MODIFY/MODERATE...MAX TEMPS MID 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LOW TO MID 60S WEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND DRIFTS EAST. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE OPAQUE BY SUNSET WITH A MILD NIGHT...NO FROST EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS UPR 30S IN NRN MD TO AROUND 40F FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. SATURDAY...OUTER RAIN BAND FROM LOW TO THE SOUTH SPREADS TOWARD CENTRAL VA...BUT AS OF THIS TIME SEEMS TO STOP JUST SHORT OF THE LWX CWA. CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH CONTINENTAL AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TO THE MID 60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHOULD THE LOW OR RAIN FROM IT SHIFT A BIT NORTH THE TEMPS WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPRESSED.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRES TO THE N WL CONT TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WX AT THE START OF THE XTND PD...KEEPING A WELL DVLPD LOW THE WL CROSS NRN FL WELL TO OUR S. PATTERN SHOULD RMN RLVTLY BENIGN THRU THE 1ST PART OF THE NEW WK: IT WON`T BE UNTIL TUE THAT THE AREA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHC OF RA WHEN AN UPR LVL SHORT WV/CD FNT LOOK TO BE MOVG THRU THE RGN. AT THIS TIME THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SVR THREAT W/ THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS IN THE L70S MON AND TUE. LOWS IN THE LM40S MON NRNG...CLOSER TO 50 TUE MRNG AHD OF THE FNT. HIGH PRES BLDG BACK INTO THE RGN WED WL LKLY LEAD TO A BRZY DAY. TEMPS 5-10 DEGS COOLER THAN TUE. LKWISE COOLER ERLY MRNG TEMPS XPCTD THU MRNG AS THE NEXT HIGH AREA SETTLES OVR THE RGN.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR CIGS DRIFT EAST BUT SHOULD STRUGGLE TO PUSH WEST OF KIAD TODAY. THESE CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTW...HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THE BECOMES SLY. LIGHT FLOW AND VFR TONIGHT...THEN NWLY FLOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH RAIN FROM A LOW OVER GEORGIA STAYING SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. IN THE XTND...VFR CONDS XPCTD THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. BIGGEST THREAT WL BE A CD FRONT TUE WHICH WL LKLY BRING RW AND THE PSBLTY OF REDUCED CIGS.
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&& .MARINE...
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ELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT BECOMES SLY BY LATE TODAY...THEN NLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT ON SATURDAY. RAIN FROM A LOW OVER GA WILL APPROACH MD BAY WATERS SATURDAY...BUT LIKELY STAY SOUTH. MAJORITY OF THE TIME IN THE XTND PD WINDS SHOULD BE BLO SCA VALUES. A CD FRONT MOVG THRU THE WATERS TUE WL LKLY BRING RW. THEN AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE WATERS WED SCA LVL WNDS CAN BE XPCTD.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...NONE. MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>007- 009>011. VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ036>040-042- 050-051-501-502. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!

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