Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 201335 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 935 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY AND PASS NORTHEAST BY CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 13Z...LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE LIFTED AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED. EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AS A SFC RIDGE FROM THE HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND PERSISTS IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PUSHING OUT TO SEA. LIGHT MIXING WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 80F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE EVENING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE 2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH VFR CONDS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES. && .MARINE... LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES TODAY. ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE AND SENSITIVE LOCATIONS FROM SOLOMONS ISLAND TO ANNAPOLIS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS. DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AS HIGH AS 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE MORE COUNTIES TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014- 018. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS NEAR TERM...BAJ/CAS SHORT TERM...BAJ/CAS LONG TERM...HTS AVIATION...BAJ/CAS/HTS MARINE...BAJ/CAS/HTS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ

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