Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 060713 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 313 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WET DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS CLOSED UPPER LOW TRANSLATES UP THE COAST FROM A POSITION OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING TO EASTERN MARYLAND/DELAWARE/NJ BY THIS EVENING. SHIELD OF RAIN AND SHOWERS...SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RAIN/SHOWERS...JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND PARTS OF WV. WITH VERY LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND WBZ HEIGHTS (AROUND 6000 FEET)...CAN`T RULE OUT A REPORT OR TWO OF PEA-SIZED HAIL IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS AS RAIN RATES NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE...ESPECIALLY IN MORE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD...AND 24 HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE SHORT OF FLOOD GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IF ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS DO TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR AREA...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES MAY ARISE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AGAIN TODAY UNDER CLOUDS AND RAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST...PERHAPS NEAR 60F IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND BEGIN TO FILL TONIGHT AS IT SITS AND SPINS NEAR THE REGION. THUS SHOULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F. LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DEPART ON SATURDAY WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF BUILDING HEIGHTS AND SOME DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LIKELY SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT THEN QUICKLY CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE SEEN IN DAYS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. A SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH TONIGHT IN PERIODS OF RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AND LIGHT FOG. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR WILL TREND DOWNWARD INTO MVFR/IFR AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME STEADY AND WIDESPREAD FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF TODAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE CHO WHERE RAIN EXPECTED TO BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM AT CHO. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING...BUT MVFR/IFR OR LOWER LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND/OR LIGHT FOG. CONDITIONS THEN WILL TREND UPWARD WITH VFR DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STARTING GENERALLY NORTHERLY TODAY/TONIGHT...TURNING NORTH/NORTHWEST SATURDAY. WINDS WILL FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS OR SO. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SUBVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. && .MARINE... NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WITH NEAR-SCA GUSTS ON THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH WINDS LESSENING BY THIS AFTERNOON. SUB-SCA WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 20-23 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. WINDS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING. THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO...SO THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANNE ARUNDEL AND ST MARYS COUNTIES FOR THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE CLOSER TO 1 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY...SO THERE ARE NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME FOR HAVRE DE GRACE IN HARFORD COUNTY. WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ACROSS CALVERT AND ST MARYS COUNTIES...AND IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WATER LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...CLOSER TO THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE ASTRONOMICAL NORM WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO. THERE IS MUCH LESS DIFF IN WATER LEVEL BETWEEN TIDE CYCLES IN THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A PROLONGED MINOR EVENT...AND HAVE ISSUED ONE ADVY FOR TIDE CYCLES...COVERING THRU FRI NIGHT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...EVEN THIS MAY NOT BE LONG ENOUGH. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DCZ001. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ018. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ011. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ017. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ017. VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ054. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ534- 543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJL NEAR TERM...MM SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...BJL AVIATION...BJL/MM MARINE...BJL/MM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL

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