Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 221835 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 235 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Surface and upper level high pressure will remain in place through the weekend and into next week. Hurricane Maria is expected to remain over the Atlantic well to our southeast through at least early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Dry and warm weather out there today with surface and upper level ridging in place. That being said, we are seeing plenty of high clouds stream in overhead from Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose. These clouds will continue to move across the region through the remainder of the day, so expect a broken high cloud deck with breaks of sunshine. Even with the clouds, temperatures have been able to warm, and highs will peak in the mid 80s, a good 5 to 10 degrees above climatological normals. Quiet weather will continue tonight, with the high cloud deck gradually thinning. There may be some patchy fog in the favored locations with light winds and falling temperatures, however the clouds should limit density and coverage. Lows tonight in the 50s and 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Warm and dry conditions will persist through the weekend under continued ridging. Saturday should see mostly sunny skies with a few high cirrus, with highs once again in the mid 80s. Lows Saturday night in the 50s/60s, with patchy fog possible again. Sunday will be even warmer under mostly sunny skies. 925 mb temperatures of 22-24C should allow highs to reach the upper 80s, with a few spot 90F readings possible as well. Mild conditions Sunday night with lows only in the 60s/70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure at the surface and aloft will allow for dry conditions over the region Monday and part of Tuesday. At the same time Hurricane Maria will be moving north over the west Atlantic Ocean Monday into Wednesday night or Thursday. At this moment it is not expected that it will affect our area, however it is possible we could get some external rainbands Tuesday or Wednesday if it gets close enough. Please monitor the National Hurricane Center`s website hurricanes.gov for more information. A cold front will move through our CWA either Wednesday night or Thursday increasing the chance of showers over our area and pushing Maria away from the US east coast. Dry conditions return behind it later on Thursday and Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Scattered to broken deck of high clouds expected through the remainder of today and into tonight. Some patchy fog possible each night and early morning (mainly CHO/MRB), otherwise, mainly VFR through the weekend. VFR conditions expected Monday and Tuesday with high pressure over our area. Some sub-VFR conditions possible later Tuesday and Wednesday with maybe some showers around, but looking mostly dry.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure will allow for light winds around 10 knots or less through the weekend. No Small Craft Advisories expected between Monday and Tuesday as wind gusts will be below criteria over our area. Wind gusts increase Tuesday night and Wednesday with Hurricane Maria over the west Atlantic Ocean.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Minor coastal flooding expected through this evening`s and tonight`s high tide cycles at Annapolis (Anne Arundel) and Straits Point (St. Mary`s). These advisories may need to be extended further. Solomons Island (Calvert) and Washington (DC) will also need to be closely monitored as levels are forecast near, but below, their flood stage.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ017. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...MM SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...MM/IMR MARINE...MM/IMR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MM

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