Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 011514 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1014 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY CREATING A WINTRY MIX. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS OVERRUN THE SURFACE COLD AIR IN PLACE...RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION STARTED OFF AS SNOW/SLEET ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WARMER AIR HAS WORKED ITS WAY IN ALOFT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW HAS ALREADY CHANGED TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS AS WELL AS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN PTYPE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE FREEZING RAIN. THEREFORE...THE WINTER HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE WITH WARNINGS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE MOST ICE IS EXPECTED DUE TO HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL. FURTHER WEST INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BUT ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSER TO A TENTH OF AN INCH DUE TO LESS PRECIPITATION. THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE LOW-LEVELS IS CUTTING BACK ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS. FREEZING RAIN WILL END FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY AROUND AND THEREFORE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE A HAZARD THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE WW ADVISORIES AND WS WARNING CONTINUES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO START THE DAY...BUT SHOULD END BY MID DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MODERATE AS 85H TEMPS REALLY NOT THAT COLD...WITH READINGS STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MARCH. ON MON NIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS EAST. SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF AS SHOWN BY 00Z ECMWF AND GFS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ON TUE...AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WED AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE THE WARMEST IN QUITE SOME TIME...AS 50S WILL BE PREVALENT...THE MEX MOS SHOWS L60S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ANY PRECIP COULD TEMPER HIGHS ON WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOR LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH LIQUID ARE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. THU-SAT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THUR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SNOW HAS CHANGED TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. ANY LEFTOVER SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BY NOON. CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN PRECIPITATION.
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&& .MARINE...
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SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY. SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN NW FLOW. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 10KT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP PRIOR TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCA POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR DCZ001. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ501. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ003-004- 013-014-016>018-502>506. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ005-006-011- 507-508. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ503. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>027-029-030-036>040-050-051-055>057-501-502-504- 507-508. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ028-031- 052>054-505-506. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ501-503- 505. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ055- 502-506. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053- 504. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...HAS/SMZ NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS SHORT TERM...HAS LONG TERM...SMZ AVIATION...BJL/HAS/SMZ MARINE...BJL/HAS/SMZ

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